Investment Conclusion. Since “Incidentally” was published ( Incidentally 11252024) explaining how things were going to get rough for Russia because of new sanctions on Russia’s financial system and the dark fleet, things have indeed started getting rough for Russia. T... Read More

“War is not caused by incidents, but its timing and trajectory often are. " There are three macro “incidents” that may matter to markets. 1. The new US comprehensive sanctions on Russian financial intermediaries may cripple the EU’s ability to pay for its USD... Read More

RTHK the close discussion of China - impacts of Trump appointments & Tariffs and the never ending question of whether Chinese stimulus is fit for purpose. Read More

David Roche: Quantum Strategy - The Micro Podcast for Macro that matters to Markets: Moving on from Trump cabinet appointments to policy the Trump Administration will pursue. I focus on two areas Tariffs and Ukraine - i look at likely policy choices and implications. Th... Read More

Investment Conclusion. Germany is on the cusp of a major opportunity to reform its economy and galvanise that of the EU as well. The process is within its political grasp. If it lets it slip it could well be the EU that shatters on the floor. This piece is the storyline of how t... Read More

The Mini Podcast on Macro - that may matter to markets China - false dawn in retail & housing?. What Xi said to Biden to say to Trump: China's 4 Red Lines (actually 3) with one a tautological obsession which tells us what Xi is prioritising. What the official anonymous China... Read More

The Second Trump Administration stands up-front and central to any market forecast this year. It is not an add-on to any existing macro picture or cycle. It is hard not to predict the future without looking through a mirror that reflects everything you like or hate about the Ma... Read More

RTHK - The Close; Carolyn Wright & David Roche discuss: The latest pre announced and endlessly repeated China stimulus package. Why it mitigates risk but will not help demand. How will China respond to Trump tariffs- demand stimulus? trade retaliation? other forms of... Read More

CNBC Squawk Box Asia David Roche & Martin Soong- the economic fall out of Trump Presidency and why geo economic uncertainty and market volatility are set re- marry after a long divorce! Read More

I see the initial reaction of markets to the Trump victory as misplaced. Not that I thought KH was any good. But I do see high economic costs in Trump policies if implemented. I expect these to cause a bear market in most assets in 2025. Taiwan is my favourite short and the USD m... Read More