The Phoney Peace? Investment Conclusion The market reaction to reduced US-China tariffs is unwarranted. The S&P 500 has clawed back all of its post Liberation Day losses and is only 5% below its peak. The existing tariffs and uncertainty will do a lot more... Read More
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07 May 25
The Wealth Preservation Portfolio
Wealth Preservation Portfolio - Weekly Update - 05.07.2025 The markets are priced for a normalisation of global trade. I do not believe this will happen. The conversation between China and the US will not lead us back to normal trade. Tariffs will settle at 20% on average... Read More
06 May 25
Taiwan & HK: Butterfly Wings & Chaos?
#Taiwan#US Dollar#Hong Kong#US Treasuries#Taiwan's Economy.#Hong Kong Dollar#Currency (US Dollar)#US Sovereign Debt#US Tariffs
Taiwan & HK: Butterfly Wings & Chaos? Investment Conclusion. The Taiwanese dollar (TWD) and the Hong Kong dollar (HKD) are under upward pressure. There are idiosyncratic reasons for this delved into below. But the real culprit is the fall of confidence in the... Read More
05 May 25
China: No Pushover!
#Tariffs#US-China Cold War#US-China Relations#US-China Trade War#US-China Trade Relations#Trump Tariffs and Treaty Destruction#Fentanyl tariffs#China trade war escalatory dominance#China Trade War#China & Global South
China: No Pushover! Investment Conclusion I would not be in any hurry to participate in the current market rally in equities, bonds or the US$. The US equity market today tells us the world is only 9% worse off than when President Trump took office and as... Read More
28 Apr 25
Great Waves Look Over Others Coming In.
Great Waves Look Over Others Coming In. Investment Conclusion Stick to the conservative asset allocation in the Wealth Preservation Portfolio at the end of this note. President Trump’s postponement of reciprocal tariffs and conciliatory texts about China do not indic... Read More
22 Apr 25
The Truce Proposal
The Truce Proposal Investment Conclusion The joint US, EU & Ukrainian Ceasefire Proposal – outlined below - to be finalised in London this week, will be rejected by Moscow. This inevitably leads to escalation. Scenarios: President Trump withdraws from Europe ... Read More
20 Apr 25
On a Train in China
#Tariffs#China Stimulus#US-China Trade War#People's Bank of China (PBoC)#US-China Trade Relations#PBoC (People's Bank of China)#China Renminbi#Economy (China)#US-China#Trump's 100 Policy Blitz.China GDP#Trump Tariffs.#US Tariffs#Remedial Tariffs#Reciprocal Tariffs#Trump Tariffs and Treaty Destruction#China Tariffs
On a Train in China Investment Conclusion The US confrontation with China will escalate further. China has escalatory dominance. And the confrontation is an opportunity for Beijing to pursue other goals left by the vacuum of US soft power withdrawal and the injury cause... Read More
15 Apr 25
The Weaponisation of Economics (Part 2: Economic Weapons of Mass Destruction)
#Trump Policy#Trade Wars#US-China Trade War#Trump Administration#Donald Trump#Trade War#Trump Tariffs.#EU-US Trade War#Trump - Putin Call#President Trump#Trump Tariffs and Treaty Destruction
The Weaponisation of Economics (Part 2: Economic Weapons of Mass Destruction) Investment Conclusion The weaponisation of the global economy has a life cycle of its own. Economic Weaponisation is growing in lethality and sophistication. Weaponisation is shaping t... Read More
14 Apr 25
The Weaponisation of Economics - (Part 1: The Escalation Ladder Viewed from China)
#Tariffs#Escalation#Ladder Of Escalation#Trump Tariffs.#US Tariffs#Remedial Tariffs#Reciprocal Tariffs#Trump Tariffs and Treaty Destruction#China Tariffs
Investment Conclusion Here’s the thing! You do not have to speculate about the fate Chinese holdings of US Treasuries to work out how the trade war will cause a US recession and a fiscal crisis. Just take a look at trade war “escalation dominance” from China’s perspectiv... Read More
10 Apr 25
US Tariffs: The Gentleman is for turning
#Tariffs#Trump Tariffs.#Tariffs China Mexico Canada#US Tariffs#Remedial Tariffs#Reciprocal Tariffs#Trump Tariffs and Treaty Destruction
The Gentleman is for turning Tariffs are still in mega-shock terrain: US average tariffs after April 10 volte face are 26% Vs 3% when President Trump took office. That’s 1% higher than if reciprocal tariffs had been implemented. What has changed is that Trump behavi... Read More
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