Tariffying Moment. The US Supreme Court is set to publish, on Friday, January 9, its opinions & and probably its verdict on the use of IEEPA tariffs. N egative for US Treasuries and the US$. No bonanza for EM equities, This report looks at the consequences ... Read More

Odd bins Investment Conclusion A renminbi based international payment and reserve system will take off within a year causing a leg down in the US$’s role as global reserve currency. Gold, not the RMB, will be the reserve asset of choice. Gold will go to US$6000 per t... Read More

Global Shipping - The US: Titan or Titanic Summary Shipping is like dark matter in the Universe. It keeps things expanding smoothly. It runs hypothetically in the background of world affairs like dark matter and energy in the universe. It prevents (stellar or earthly)... Read More

Egonomics - The Resilience of Trump's Alternative Economy. Investment Conclusion The resilience of the Trump Administration’s economic policies is greater than I thought. There has been success in creating an alternative economic framework driven by the President... Read More

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RTHK The Close with Carolyn Wright & Richard Harris: Tariffs update - key issues; Trump’s attempt to blackmail EU to hide his own failings and what’s critical about BoJ & Fed meetings this week. Read More

EU-US Tariff Deal: Ursula Sings from the President’s Hymn sheet Investment Conclusion: Equity Markets will like the deal. It removes trade war uncertainty. But more for equities than any other asset class, the uncertainty about the hit to profits and discount factors... Read More

Tariffs: How Good is Bad? The US-Japanese hadshake deal Investment Conclusion The equity markets are rejoicing at the latest US tariff deals. I am not. And neither are bond markets or the US $. The Japanese handshake 15% tariff deal is better than the mooted 25% tariffs. Bu... Read More

Shifting Sands Investment Conclusion The result of the Japanese election heralds a period of weak government at a critical time. That undermines the safe haven status of the Yen. The Yen long position in the Wealth Preservation Portfolio is being sold. A short... Read More

President Trump’s Putin Pivot Investment Conclusion Trump’s Pivot on Putin is probably due to a sense of personnel betrayal. This is likely to make it more durable than if it was based on a moral policy vision. The pivot has the potential to change the battlefield in ... Read More