We're in for a bear market in most asset classes during 2025. This piece integrates the macro and micro reasons for that conviction. The core conviction is that macro-risk is out of synch with market volatility. This will be resolved by market volatility rising as macro ... Read More
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08 Jan 25
Astern!
#US#EU#Greyzone Warfare#Protectionism#Sanctions#Energy#China#Trump#Central Banks#Geopolitics#Volatility#Russia#Ukraine#Yen#US Fed#Middle East#Israel#Iran#ECB#Markets#IDF#Putin#Moscow#Macro Uncertainty#Market Volatility#China Stimulus#US Labor Market#Escalation#Trump Policy#Syria#French Sovereign Debt#Korea#Hamas#FOMC#US Federal Reserve#US$#Taiwan#S.Korea#Undersea Cable#Undersea Cables#Martial Law#Yoon Suk Yeol#Grayzone Warfare
18 Dec 24
US Fed - less cuts to come - “wannabe” but “won’t be” macro forecasts - and fudging the equilibrium rates
US Fed. Cut as expected = 25bp. One dissent - Beth M. Hammack. Positive for US$ Vs EURO & Yen. Forecast for policy rates in 2025 up quite sharply from Sept forecast to 3.9% from 3.4% . That would indicate fewer cuts . The FOMC expects policy rate cuts to continue into... Read More
12 Dec 24
US Fed & ECB
Update: ECB Fed BoJ Expect 25bp cut from the ECB today. Not 50 bp. The economy is bad enough for a 50bp cut But the ECB is still on the scenario that falling inflation offsets falling nominal wages so that rising real wages get spent as consumption. I doubt it , unlike the... Read More
06 Nov 24
The Winter of Discontent - The post Trump Global Scenario
#World#Greyzone Warfare#US Election#Trump#Kamala Harris#Geopolitics#Yen#Harris#US Fed#Middle East#Trump Victory
I see the initial reaction of markets to the Trump victory as misplaced. Not that I thought KH was any good. But I do see high economic costs in Trump policies if implemented. I expect these to cause a bear market in most assets in 2025. Taiwan is my favourite short and the USD m... Read More
27 Oct 24
Japan- Turbulence in a Tea Cup
Japanese elections see LDP decimated. There will be a period of uncertainty and volatility for Japanese assets as a messy, weak, coalition is put together at the end of a protracted messier period of haggling. Such volatility is a storm in teacup in the global scale of things. ... Read More
02 Aug 24
Autumn Sonata
#Finance#EU#China#US Election#Trump#Yen#Euro#Strategy Archive#Sovereign Debt Crisis#USD#Credibility#Market Predictions#Equity Bear Market#CNH#Growth Gap#2035
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch. Read More
02 May 24
Central Bank Update
#Yen#Germany#US Federal Reserve#Strategy Archive#Inflation#USD#European Central Bank#EUR#Renminbi#Treasury Securities
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch. Read More
01 Nov 23
The US Fed - Much Ado About Something
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch. Read More
02 Feb 23
Central Banks And Goldilocks
#Yen#Strategy Archive#Dollar#Equities#Gold#Interest Rates#Bonds#Bank of England#USD#European Central Bank#Rates#Federal Reserve#Market Sentiment#Automatic Rate Hikes
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch. Read More
23 Sep 22
Japan Intervenes To Prop Up The Yen
#Finance#Monetary Policy#Central Banks#Yen#Strategy Archive#Bank of Japan#United States#Federal Reserve#Europe (Draghi)
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch. Read More
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