This update looks at US “Exceptionalism” and USD strength. The drivers of both are international equity flows as much as safe haven demand for US assets or central bank activity.. The investment conclusions are that a bear market in US equities would have have negative implic... Read More
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20 Jan 25
President Trump Inauguration Speech & the US$
President Trump inauguration speech. US$ may weaken for a while due to lack of immediate imposition of tariffs (in contrast with other policies like immigration) and statement that his administration would “ begin the overhaul” of trade with foreign countries. I don’t ex... Read More
08 Jan 25
Astern!
#US#EU#Greyzone Warfare#Protectionism#Sanctions#Energy#China#Trump#Central Banks#Geopolitics#Volatility#Russia#Ukraine#Yen#US Fed#Middle East#Israel#Iran#ECB#Markets#IDF#Putin#Moscow#Macro Uncertainty#Market Volatility#China Stimulus#US Labor Market#Escalation#Trump Policy#Syria#French Sovereign Debt#Korea#Hamas#FOMC#US Federal Reserve#US$#Taiwan#S.Korea#Undersea Cable#Undersea Cables#Martial Law#Yoon Suk Yeol#Grayzone Warfare
We're in for a bear market in most asset classes during 2025. This piece integrates the macro and micro reasons for that conviction. The core conviction is that macro-risk is out of synch with market volatility. This will be resolved by market volatility rising as macro ... Read More
20 Dec 24
US Fed - less cuts to come - “wannabe” but “won’t be” macro forecasts - and fudging the equilibrium rates question.
US Fed. Cut as expected = 25bp. One dissent - Beth M. Hammack. Less cuts to come. Positive for US$ Vs EURO & Yen. “Wannabe” but “won’t be” macro forecasts - and fudging the equilibrium rates question. But this piece explains why US equilibrium Fed Fund Rates is 4%. US... Read More
17 Aug 07
US The Bernanke put update
#Central Banks#Yen#Euro#US$#Strategy Archive#Economy#Gold#Currencies#Interest Rates#Commodities#Financial markets
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch. Read More
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