We're in for a bear market in most asset classes during 2025. This piece integrates the macro and micro reasons for that conviction. The core conviction is that macro-risk is out of synch with market volatility. This will be resolved by market volatility rising as macro ... Read More
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08 Jan 25
Astern!
#US#EU#Greyzone Warfare#Protectionism#Sanctions#Energy#China#Trump#Central Banks#Geopolitics#Volatility#Russia#Ukraine#Yen#US Fed#Middle East#Israel#Iran#ECB#Markets#IDF#Putin#Moscow#Macro Uncertainty#Market Volatility#China Stimulus#US Labor Market#Escalation#Trump Policy#Syria#French Sovereign Debt#Korea#Hamas#FOMC#US Federal Reserve#US$#Taiwan#S.Korea#Undersea Cable#Undersea Cables#Martial Law#Yoon Suk Yeol#Grayzone Warfare
22 Oct 24
When Macro Will Matter
#Trade#Greyzone Warfare#Geo-economics#Geostrategy#Plateshifts#Tectonic Shifts#Protectionism#China#Trump#Kamala Harris#Geopolitics#Middle East#Israel#Iran#Lebanon#Markets#IDF#Putin#Moscow#Macro Uncertainty#Market Volatility
Macro uncertainty (high) and market volatility (low) have divorced. The piece explains why and when it will end. This will happen in the next twelve months. The catalyst will be conflicts that incur economic cost beyond what markets can ignore. Read More
07 Oct 24
Winter of Discontent
#World#US#Trade#Greyzone Warfare#Tariffs#US Election#Trump#Russia#US Fed#Middle East#Israel#Iran#Japan#Markets#Moscow#Global Outlook#LDP
There will be a bear market in the next 12 months. The DNA of the bear market is writ large: the inevitable war on Iran’s nuclear weapons capabilities; Russia and Ukraine again becoming economically relevant to markets; unrequited market expectations for growt... Read More
03 Jun 24
South Africa The Beginning Of The End
#Elections#Politics#Markets#Strategy Archive#Economy#Inequality#Corruption#Government policy#Unemployment#Patronage
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch. Read More
17 May 24
China Real Estate - No Bazooka
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch. Read More
15 Mar 24
Japan Boj Mood Music
#Monetary Policy#Japan#Markets#Strategy Archive#Bank of Japan#Government Debt#Interest Rates#Banking#Yield Curve Control
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch. Read More
15 Mar 24
Japan Boj Mood Music
#Monetary Policy#Japan#Markets#Strategy Archive#GDP#Bank of Japan#Government Debt#Interest Rates#Banking#Retail Sales#Yield Curve Control
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch. Read More
06 Mar 24
China Twin Meetings
#Finance#Asia#Security#Politics#China#Markets#Strategy Archive#Economy#Governance#India#Globalization
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch. Read More
08 Oct 23
Hamas And Israel - Market Perimeters
#Finance#Security#Energy#Politics#Russia#Ukraine#Iran#Markets#Strategy Archive#Economy#War#USA#International Relations#Borders
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch. Read More
20 Apr 23
Hong Kong - Hitting The Buffers
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch. Read More
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