Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, January 28-29, 2025 I thought the most significant statement in the Minutes was this: “the effects of potential changes in trade and immigration policy as well as strong consumer demand. Business contacts in a number... Read More
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30 Jan 25
The ECB & the Fed -- Some Points to Ponder.
#Central Banks#US Fed#ECB#FOMC#ESCB#NGFSNetwork of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System (NGFS)
Central Banks There were a few interesting things from the ECB and FOMC meetings: ECB Mme LaGarde is convinced that the Eurozone recovery is happening and will accelerate as inflation falls and real incomes rise. Real income will rise because wage increases will ... Read More
09 Jan 25
FOMC - the future confusion.
FOMC - the future confusion. Some FOMC members included estimates of President Trump's mooted Tariff and Immigration policies in their "dot" estimates. One did not. And some didn't say. Some argued that such policies could damage the inflation outlook. Some obviously did no... Read More
08 Jan 25
Astern!
#US#EU#Greyzone Warfare#Protectionism#Sanctions#Energy#China#Trump#Central Banks#Geopolitics#Volatility#Russia#Ukraine#Yen#US Fed#Middle East#Israel#Iran#ECB#Markets#IDF#Putin#Moscow#Macro Uncertainty#Market Volatility#China Stimulus#US Labor Market#Escalation#Trump Policy#Syria#French Sovereign Debt#Korea#Hamas#FOMC#US Federal Reserve#US$#Taiwan#S.Korea#Undersea Cable#Undersea Cables#Martial Law#Yoon Suk Yeol#Grayzone Warfare
We're in for a bear market in most asset classes during 2025. This piece integrates the macro and micro reasons for that conviction. The core conviction is that macro-risk is out of synch with market volatility. This will be resolved by market volatility rising as macro ... Read More
24 Dec 24
France- Plus Ca Change, Plus Ca Reste La Meme Chose.
#EU#Geopolitics#EU Commission#ECB#France#French Sovereign Debt#Euro#French Government#FOMC#Francois Bayrou
Investment Conclusion PM Bayrou presented his government yesterday. It is a weak one by any measure. There will be no fiscal or other reform in France. Populists will take over in June. Yet another weak short lived French government has spillover effects. It increases the ri... Read More
20 Dec 24
US Fed - less cuts to come - “wannabe” but “won’t be” macro forecasts - and fudging the equilibrium rates question.
US Fed. Cut as expected = 25bp. One dissent - Beth M. Hammack. Less cuts to come. Positive for US$ Vs EURO & Yen. “Wannabe” but “won’t be” macro forecasts - and fudging the equilibrium rates question. But this piece explains why US equilibrium Fed Fund Rates is 4%. US... Read More
18 Dec 24
US Fed - less cuts to come - “wannabe” but “won’t be” macro forecasts - and fudging the equilibrium rates
US Fed. Cut as expected = 25bp. One dissent - Beth M. Hammack. Positive for US$ Vs EURO & Yen. Forecast for policy rates in 2025 up quite sharply from Sept forecast to 3.9% from 3.4% . That would indicate fewer cuts . The FOMC expects policy rate cuts to continue into... Read More
01 Feb 24
The Fed - A Trinity Of Thoughts
#US#China#Japan#Germany#FOMC#Strategy Archive#Dollar#Inflation#Interest Rates#Federal Reserve#Eurozone Economy#Equity Earnings
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch. Read More
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