Russia Sanctions & Oil. New US Sanctions are e nough to keep Brent between US$ 80-90 bbl and to heft shipping rates for legitimate tanker fleets. A Trump embargo on Iranian oil shipments could add to pricing pressure., Russia accounts for about 13% of global crude... Read More
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08 Jan 25
Astern!
#US#EU#Greyzone Warfare#Protectionism#Sanctions#Energy#China#Trump#Central Banks#Geopolitics#Volatility#Russia#Ukraine#Yen#US Fed#Middle East#Israel#Iran#ECB#Markets#IDF#Putin#Moscow#Macro Uncertainty#Market Volatility#China Stimulus#US Labor Market#Escalation#Trump Policy#Syria#French Sovereign Debt#Korea#Hamas#FOMC#US Federal Reserve#US$#Taiwan#S.Korea#Undersea Cable#Undersea Cables#Martial Law#Yoon Suk Yeol#Grayzone Warfare
We're in for a bear market in most asset classes during 2025. This piece integrates the macro and micro reasons for that conviction. The core conviction is that macro-risk is out of synch with market volatility. This will be resolved by market volatility rising as macro ... Read More
08 Dec 24
Middle East – Syria - The End of the Bashar al-Assad regime.
#Greyzone Warfare#Energy#Trump#Russia#Israel#Iran#Lebanon#IDF#Hezbollah#Gaza#Escalation#Syria#Bashar al-Assad#Hamas
Investment Conclusion Winners: Israel & the US. Losers: Russia & Iran. Supportive of markets and the US$. The fall of Bashar al-Assad weakens Russia and Iran significantly. The winners are Turkey, Israel and the US. It is likely (60%) Syria will hang together as a u... Read More
10 Aug 24
Ukraine- Kursk Offensive
#Security#Greyzone Warfare#Cold War#Sanctions#Energy#Industrial Raw Materials#Politics#Geopolitics#Russia#Ukraine#Water
Kursk offensive has potential to be a turning point in this war if Ukraine achieves strategic objectives. If so market effects would be significant. Read More
01 Aug 24
Autumn Sonata
#EU#Geo-economics#Tectonic Shifts#Protectionism#Energy#Oil#China#China Plenum#Monetary Policy#Central Banks#Geopolitics
Economics & Markets after Autumn makes the blooms fade & some icy winter fingers appear. Read More
18 Dec 23
The End Of The Age Of Oil
#Energy#Strategy Archive#Climate Change#Taxation#UN#Fossil Fuels#Renewable Energy#Carbon Pricing#Global Warming#COP28
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch. Read More
08 Oct 23
Hamas And Israel - Market Perimeters
#Finance#Security#Energy#Politics#Russia#Ukraine#Iran#Markets#Strategy Archive#Economy#War#USA#International Relations#Borders
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch. Read More
09 Mar 23
Russia's Matryoshka Energy Doll Set - The Truth Within The Truth
#Energy#Oil#Politics#China#Russia#Strategy Archive#India#Saudi Arabia#Europe (EU)#LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas)#New World Disorder
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch. Read More
20 Jan 23
Step On The Gas
#Cold War#Energy#Oil#China#Geopolitics#Strategy Archive#Leverage#Demand#Cash Flow#Fossil Fuels#Valuation
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch. Read More
21 Dec 22
2X Dumb Done Deals - But Important
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch. Read More
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