Ukraine. Rubio and Witkoff will not attend talks in London after Ukraine rejects parts of the Ceasefire Proposal (giving Crimea to Russia). Ex General Kellog will go instead. Putin will be delighted. Zelensky can now be framed as the reason why the Cease Fire P... Read More

The Truce Proposal Investment Conclusion The joint US, EU & Ukrainian Ceasefire Proposal – outlined below - to be finalised in London this week, will be rejected by Moscow. This inevitably leads to escalation. Scenarios: President Trump withdraws from Europe ... Read More

Divorce a l'Americain The Liberal World Order and NATO are dead ducks. That opens the way for the Trump 2 Administration to hit Europe with very high (remedial/reciprocal) tariffs in April. Trump has no need for Europeans to help him with Ukraine. The EM... Read More

The liberal world order, if not dead, is very ill in bed. What replaces it will not be orderly or come cheap. States, previously part a network of alliances, will go it alone to ensure their own defense and strategic interests. There will be a massive increase in defence... Read More

We're in for a bear market in most asset classes during 2025. This piece integrates the macro and micro reasons for that conviction. The core conviction is that macro-risk is out of synch with market volatility. This will be resolved by market volatility rising as macro ... Read More

The sabotage of the Baltic EstLInk2 undersea electricity cable linking Finland to Estonia is not “story over”. The Baltic States are supposed to celebrate the end of their membership of BRELL (Belarus, Russia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania) soviet era electricity supply grid in ... Read More

Update Middle East and Russia: Shifting Sands and Snow Drifts. I have been getting the views of some friends involved in the Middle East and others serving in Ukraine. Both sets of views are a bit different to what markets believe. It changes the timing and risks of ... Read More

Investment Conclusion Winners: Israel & the US. Losers: Russia & Iran. Supportive of markets and the US$. The fall of Bashar al-Assad weakens Russia and Iran significantly. The winners are Turkey, Israel and the US. It is likely (60%) Syria will hang together as a u... Read More

Update on Macro events that may matter to markets. France: I expect the Bernier government to fall and the budget not to be passed. It could happen today or later this week. The result will be a widening of French sovereign spreads to 110 BP over bunds. The Euro will... Read More

Investment Conclusion. Since “Incidentally” was published ( Incidentally 11252024) explaining how things were going to get rough for Russia because of new sanctions on Russia’s financial system and the dark fleet, things have indeed started getting rough for Russia. T... Read More