Tariffying! US “remedial” tariffs to be announced on April 2 will raise the US effective tariff rate to above 15% - a level not seen since the Great Depression era. This is above the level needed to cause Tariff-Induced-Stagflation in the US economy. The announcement will co... Read More
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28 Dec 24
Baltic Undersea Electricity Cables – More Than Meets the Eye.
#Greyzone Warfare#Geo-economics#Geostrategy#Geopolitics#Russia#Putin#Baltic Sea#Undersea Cable#Finland
The sabotage of the Baltic EstLInk2 undersea electricity cable linking Finland to Estonia is not “story over”. The Baltic States are supposed to celebrate the end of their membership of BRELL (Belarus, Russia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania) soviet era electricity supply grid in ... Read More
22 Oct 24
When Macro Will Matter
#Trade#Greyzone Warfare#Geo-economics#Geostrategy#Plateshifts#Tectonic Shifts#Protectionism#China#Trump#Kamala Harris#Geopolitics#Middle East#Israel#Iran#Lebanon#Markets#IDF#Putin#Moscow#Macro Uncertainty#Market Volatility
Macro uncertainty (high) and market volatility (low) have divorced. The piece explains why and when it will end. This will happen in the next twelve months. The catalyst will be conflicts that incur economic cost beyond what markets can ignore. Read More
01 Oct 24
Russia - The Rubbish Budget
The Russian budget points the way to the increasing un-sustainability of the war for Moscow beginning 2025. The war does not matter to markets now. But it would if it ended. The peace dividend would be high. Read More
26 Aug 24
The Middle East- is this the start of the wider war?
#Greyzone Warfare#Geo-economics#Geostrategy#Weaponisation#Geopolitics#Middle East#Israel#Iran#Lebanon#Hezbollah#Gaza
Israeli airstrike against Hezbollah makes the Middle East Armageddon more unlikely. Read More
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