We're in for a bear market in most asset classes during 2025. This piece integrates the macro and micro reasons for that conviction. The core conviction is that macro-risk is out of synch with market volatility. This will be resolved by market volatility rising as macro ... Read More

Macro uncertainty (high) and market volatility (low) have divorced. The piece explains why and when it will end. This will happen in the next twelve months. The catalyst will be conflicts that incur economic cost beyond what markets can ignore. Read More