FOMC - the future confusion. Some FOMC members included estimates of President Trump's mooted Tariff and Immigration policies in their "dot" estimates. One did not. And some didn't say. Some argued that such policies could damage the inflation outlook. Some obviously did no... Read More
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08 Jan 25
Astern!
#US#EU#Greyzone Warfare#Protectionism#Sanctions#Energy#China#Trump#Central Banks#Geopolitics#Volatility#Russia#Ukraine#Yen#US Fed#Middle East#Israel#Iran#ECB#Markets#IDF#Putin#Moscow#Macro Uncertainty#Market Volatility#China Stimulus#US Labor Market#Escalation#Trump Policy#Syria#French Sovereign Debt#Korea#Hamas#FOMC#US Federal Reserve#US$#Taiwan#S.Korea#Undersea Cable#Undersea Cables#Martial Law#Yoon Suk Yeol#Grayzone Warfare
We're in for a bear market in most asset classes during 2025. This piece integrates the macro and micro reasons for that conviction. The core conviction is that macro-risk is out of synch with market volatility. This will be resolved by market volatility rising as macro ... Read More
20 Dec 24
US Fed - less cuts to come - “wannabe” but “won’t be” macro forecasts - and fudging the equilibrium rates question.
US Fed. Cut as expected = 25bp. One dissent - Beth M. Hammack. Less cuts to come. Positive for US$ Vs EURO & Yen. “Wannabe” but “won’t be” macro forecasts - and fudging the equilibrium rates question. But this piece explains why US equilibrium Fed Fund Rates is 4%. US... Read More
25 Nov 24
Incidentally
“War is not caused by incidents, but its timing and trajectory often are. " There are three macro “incidents” that may matter to markets. 1. The new US comprehensive sanctions on Russian financial intermediaries may cripple the EU’s ability to pay for its USD... Read More
07 Oct 24
Winter of Discontent
#World#US#Trade#Greyzone Warfare#Tariffs#US Election#Trump#Russia#US Fed#Middle East#Israel#Iran#Japan#Markets#Moscow#Global Outlook#LDP
There will be a bear market in the next 12 months. The DNA of the bear market is writ large: the inevitable war on Iran’s nuclear weapons capabilities; Russia and Ukraine again becoming economically relevant to markets; unrequited market expectations for growt... Read More
05 Aug 24
Troubles Weekend
Recession is the new cloud in the blue sky over markets. The markets now know the colour of fear. Recession is not for now. But fear is. Here's why! Read More
21 Jul 24
Joe Biden Withdraws
It is confirmed that Joe Biden has withdrawn his candidacy for the Presidency. He endorses Kamala Harris as his successor. This choice is likely to be endorsed by the Democratic Party. Report follows. Read More
13 Jun 24
US Fed- Not Quite Plain Vanilla
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch. Read More
22 Mar 24
FOMC - Mirabile Dictu
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch. Read More
15 Mar 24
The Global Manuservices Economy - Investment Themes
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch. Read More
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