We're in for a bear market in most asset classes during 2025. This piece integrates the macro and micro reasons for that conviction. The core conviction is that macro-risk is out of synch with market volatility. This will be resolved by market volatility rising as macro ... Read More
Reports LibraryShowing All Results
08 Jan 25
Astern!
#US#EU#Greyzone Warfare#Protectionism#Sanctions#Energy#China#Trump#Central Banks#Geopolitics#Volatility#Russia#Ukraine#Yen#US Fed#Middle East#Israel#Iran#ECB#Markets#IDF#Putin#Moscow#Macro Uncertainty#Market Volatility#China Stimulus#US Labor Market#Escalation#Trump Policy#Syria#French Sovereign Debt#Korea#Hamas#FOMC#US Federal Reserve#US$#Taiwan#S.Korea#Undersea Cable#Undersea Cables#Martial Law#Yoon Suk Yeol#Grayzone Warfare
27 Dec 24
Syria: Now for the Bad News
#Geopolitics#Middle East#Israel#Iran#Lebanon#Hezbollah#Syria#Turkey#Coup#Bashar al-Assad#Hamas#PLA#Erdogan#Iraq
Syria will not be a unitary state. Syria's fragmentation is driven by internal ethnic splits and by external players such as Turkey, Iran and Iraq. Syria is descending into internal conflict. But any power configuration is going to be anti-Iranian. Iran will be deprived of its ... Read More
10 Dec 24
Middle East & Russia: Update
#Geopolitics#Russia#Middle East#Lebanon#IDF#Putin#Hezbollah#Trump Policy#Syria#Bashar al-Assad#Hamas
Update Middle East and Russia: Shifting Sands and Snow Drifts. I have been getting the views of some friends involved in the Middle East and others serving in Ukraine. Both sets of views are a bit different to what markets believe. It changes the timing and risks of ... Read More
08 Dec 24
Middle East – Syria - The End of the Bashar al-Assad regime.
#Greyzone Warfare#Energy#Trump#Russia#Israel#Iran#Lebanon#IDF#Hezbollah#Gaza#Escalation#Syria#Bashar al-Assad#Hamas
Investment Conclusion Winners: Israel & the US. Losers: Russia & Iran. Supportive of markets and the US$. The fall of Bashar al-Assad weakens Russia and Iran significantly. The winners are Turkey, Israel and the US. It is likely (60%) Syria will hang together as a u... Read More
02 Dec 24
Update on Geopolitics that matter to markets
Update on Macro events that may matter to markets. France: I expect the Bernier government to fall and the budget not to be passed. It could happen today or later this week. The result will be a widening of French sovereign spreads to 110 BP over bunds. The Euro will... Read More
27 Oct 16
Russia - Reviving The Cold War
#US#EU#Sanctions#Elections#Politics#Russia#Ukraine#Syria#Strategy Archive#Europe#NATO#Military#Cyber Warfare#Clinton
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch. Read More
20 Nov 15
Russia - Back To The Top Table
#Sanctions#Oil#Gas#Politics#Russia#Ukraine#Putin#Syria#Strategy Archive#Economy#Commodities#Government#International Relations#Terrorism#Global Stage#ISIS#Aggression
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch. Read More
Expected more? Our recent reports are for Subscribers only. To see everything, become a Subscriber.Contact Us