Syria will not be a unitary state. Syria's fragmentation is driven by internal ethnic splits and by external players such as Turkey, Iran and Iraq. Syria is descending into internal conflict. But any power configuration is going to be anti-Iranian. Iran will be deprived of its ... Read More
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23 Dec 24
RTHK The Close with Carolyn Wright.
#US#Greyzone Warfare#Geo-economics#Protectionism#Trump#Monetary Policy#Geopolitics#US Fed#Israel#Iran#France#Markets#Putin#Hezbollah#Macro Uncertainty#Market Volatility#Germany#Escalation#Trump Policy#Hamas#FOMC#US Federal Reserve
All the Big Things that could go wrong or right next year. A tour de force and tour du monde with the David Roche and Carolyn Wright. Read More
23 Dec 24
CNBC: Europe: Steve & I on whether the only word we need to learn to pronounce next year is "Trump" to which we added Xi, Putin ...
#US#Protectionism#Tariffs#Sanctions#Oil#China#US Election#Trump#Monetary Policy#Russia#Ukraine#US Fed#Chairman Powell#France#Japan#IDF#Putin#Moscow#Hezbollah#Macro Uncertainty#China Stimulus#Trump Policy#Turkey#French Sovereign Debt#French Government#Hamas#FOMC#US Federal Reserve
A short history of 2025 - starting with how the reign of Trump could go wrong or right and then applying the same doomster methodology to reading the cards for Xi and Putin.......finishing with a modest forecast for the little old UK. Read More
10 Dec 24
Middle East & Russia: Update
#Geopolitics#Russia#Middle East#Lebanon#IDF#Putin#Hezbollah#Trump Policy#Syria#Bashar al-Assad#Hamas
Update Middle East and Russia: Shifting Sands and Snow Drifts. I have been getting the views of some friends involved in the Middle East and others serving in Ukraine. Both sets of views are a bit different to what markets believe. It changes the timing and risks of ... Read More
08 Dec 24
Middle East – Syria - The End of the Bashar al-Assad regime.
#Greyzone Warfare#Energy#Trump#Russia#Israel#Iran#Lebanon#IDF#Hezbollah#Gaza#Escalation#Syria#Bashar al-Assad#Hamas
Investment Conclusion Winners: Israel & the US. Losers: Russia & Iran. Supportive of markets and the US$. The fall of Bashar al-Assad weakens Russia and Iran significantly. The winners are Turkey, Israel and the US. It is likely (60%) Syria will hang together as a u... Read More
02 Dec 24
Update on Geopolitics that matter to markets
Update on Macro events that may matter to markets. France: I expect the Bernier government to fall and the budget not to be passed. It could happen today or later this week. The result will be a widening of French sovereign spreads to 110 BP over bunds. The Euro will... Read More
26 Oct 24
Middle East: Limited Israeli Retaliation
Limited Israeli retaliation Against Iran will relieve markets. But it does not change outlook for a wider war to be waged by Israel to achieve regime chnage in Tehran targeting Iran's oil assets and nukes within 12 months. The current attack will not break the mould of market i... Read More
21 Oct 24
RTHK - The Close
#Asia#Greyzone Warfare#Oil#US Election#Trump#Kamala Harris#Geopolitics#Russia#Middle East#Israel#Iran#Lebanon#China Real Estate#Hezbollah#Gaza
The US Presidential - swing to Trump in polls. Meaning of Trump or Harris victory for markets. China stimulus- will the consumer follow orders and shop? Moldova - the corrosive power of Moscow disinformation and corruption. Middle East- Israeli riposte - the delay means more - ... Read More
15 Oct 24
RTHK The Close
RTHK - The Close: China fiscal stimulus- good money after bad?. The US Presidential Election - political & market outcome. . The Middle East - which war now? Read More
07 Oct 24
The Mini Podcast on Macro Matters
The US Swing State Polls & the Crafting of the Israeli Retaliatory Attack on Iran. Read More
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