Tariffying! US “remedial” tariffs to be announced on April 2 will raise the US effective tariff rate to above 15% - a level not seen since the Great Depression era. This is above the level needed to cause Tariff-Induced-Stagflation in the US economy. The announcement will co... Read More
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08 Jan 25
Astern!
#US#EU#Greyzone Warfare#Protectionism#Sanctions#Energy#China#Trump#Central Banks#Geopolitics#Volatility#Russia#Ukraine#Yen#US Fed#Middle East#Israel#Iran#ECB#Markets#IDF#Putin#Moscow#Macro Uncertainty#Market Volatility#China Stimulus#US Labor Market#Escalation#Trump Policy#Syria#French Sovereign Debt#Korea#Hamas#FOMC#US Federal Reserve#US$#Taiwan#S.Korea#Undersea Cable#Undersea Cables#Martial Law#Yoon Suk Yeol#Grayzone Warfare
We're in for a bear market in most asset classes during 2025. This piece integrates the macro and micro reasons for that conviction. The core conviction is that macro-risk is out of synch with market volatility. This will be resolved by market volatility rising as macro ... Read More
22 Oct 24
When Macro Will Matter
#Trade#Greyzone Warfare#Geo-economics#Geostrategy#Plateshifts#Tectonic Shifts#Protectionism#China#Trump#Kamala Harris#Geopolitics#Middle East#Israel#Iran#Lebanon#Markets#IDF#Putin#Moscow#Macro Uncertainty#Market Volatility
Macro uncertainty (high) and market volatility (low) have divorced. The piece explains why and when it will end. This will happen in the next twelve months. The catalyst will be conflicts that incur economic cost beyond what markets can ignore. Read More
01 Aug 24
Autumn Sonata
#EU#Geo-economics#Tectonic Shifts#Protectionism#Energy#Oil#China#China Plenum#Monetary Policy#Central Banks#Geopolitics
Economics & Markets after Autumn makes the blooms fade & some icy winter fingers appear. Read More
18 Dec 18
Star Wars
#Trade#Protectionism#Tariffs#China#Geopolitics#Strategy Archive#Economy#Equities#United States#Risk Assets#Xi Jinping#President
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch. Read More
19 Sep 18
Inverted Pyramids Always Topple
#Finance#US#Trade#Protectionism#Politics#Markets#Strategy Archive#Inflation#Equity markets#Profitability#Global Growth
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch. Read More
05 Apr 18
Protectionism - Beyond The Macro
#US#Trade#Technology#Protectionism#Strategy Archive#Economy#Dollar#Inflation#Interest Rates#Equity markets#War
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch. Read More
08 Aug 06
US Chicken and egg of recession and inflation
#Protectionism#Energy#Monetary Policy#Geopolitics#Recession#Strategy Archive#Inflation#Interest Rates#Consumer Spending#Asset Bubbles#USA
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch. Read More
19 May 06
Inflationthatmatters
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch. Read More
26 Oct 04
US Election - Its Still The Economy
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch. Read More
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