Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, January 28-29, 2025 I thought the most significant statement in the Minutes was this: “the effects of potential changes in trade and immigration policy as well as strong consumer demand. Business contacts in a number... Read More
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09 Jan 25
FOMC - the future confusion.
FOMC - the future confusion. Some FOMC members included estimates of President Trump's mooted Tariff and Immigration policies in their "dot" estimates. One did not. And some didn't say. Some argued that such policies could damage the inflation outlook. Some obviously did no... Read More
08 Jan 25
Astern!
#US#EU#Greyzone Warfare#Protectionism#Sanctions#Energy#China#Trump#Central Banks#Geopolitics#Volatility#Russia#Ukraine#Yen#US Fed#Middle East#Israel#Iran#ECB#Markets#IDF#Putin#Moscow#Macro Uncertainty#Market Volatility#China Stimulus#US Labor Market#Escalation#Trump Policy#Syria#French Sovereign Debt#Korea#Hamas#FOMC#US Federal Reserve#US$#Taiwan#S.Korea#Undersea Cable#Undersea Cables#Martial Law#Yoon Suk Yeol#Grayzone Warfare
We're in for a bear market in most asset classes during 2025. This piece integrates the macro and micro reasons for that conviction. The core conviction is that macro-risk is out of synch with market volatility. This will be resolved by market volatility rising as macro ... Read More
20 Dec 24
US Fed - less cuts to come - “wannabe” but “won’t be” macro forecasts - and fudging the equilibrium rates question.
US Fed. Cut as expected = 25bp. One dissent - Beth M. Hammack. Less cuts to come. Positive for US$ Vs EURO & Yen. “Wannabe” but “won’t be” macro forecasts - and fudging the equilibrium rates question. But this piece explains why US equilibrium Fed Fund Rates is 4%. US... Read More
02 May 24
Central Bank Update
#Yen#Germany#US Federal Reserve#Strategy Archive#Inflation#USD#European Central Bank#EUR#Renminbi#Treasury Securities
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch. Read More
08 Jul 21
ECB - Reframing Your Dreams
#Euro#US Federal Reserve#Strategy Archive#Dollar#European Central Bank#Banking#Inflation Target#Policy Stance#Asset Purchases#Short-term Market Reaction#Comparative Analysis
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch. Read More
28 Jan 16
Currency Shifting Sands
#Politics#Markets#US Federal Reserve#Strategy Archive#Economy#Bank of Japan#Currencies#Exchange Rates#European Central Bank (ECB)#China Renminbi#India Rupee#Poland Zloty
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch. Read More
04 Nov 15
What If Monetary Policy Is Dead
#Asia#Monetary Policy#US Federal Reserve#Strategy Archive#Economy#Currencies#Financial markets#Labour Markets#Overleveraged Economies
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch. Read More
28 May 13
US - Labour Market Key To The End Of QE
#US Federal Reserve#Strategy Archive#Congress#Quantitative Easing#Labour Market#Unemployment Rate#Janet Yellen
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch. Read More
14 Dec 07
No Cred For The Fed Update
#Central Banks#US Federal Reserve#Strategy Archive#Equities#Commodities#Liquidity#Commercial Paper#Inter-Bank Market#Risk Premia
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch. Read More
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