Investment Conclusion PM Bayrou presented his government yesterday. It is a weak one by any measure. There will be no fiscal or other reform in France. Populists will take over in June. Yet another weak short lived French government has spillover effects. It increases the ri... Read More
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20 Dec 24
US Fed - less cuts to come - “wannabe” but “won’t be” macro forecasts - and fudging the equilibrium rates question.
US Fed. Cut as expected = 25bp. One dissent - Beth M. Hammack. Less cuts to come. Positive for US$ Vs EURO & Yen. “Wannabe” but “won’t be” macro forecasts - and fudging the equilibrium rates question. But this piece explains why US equilibrium Fed Fund Rates is 4%. US... Read More
18 Dec 24
US Fed - less cuts to come - “wannabe” but “won’t be” macro forecasts - and fudging the equilibrium rates
US Fed. Cut as expected = 25bp. One dissent - Beth M. Hammack. Positive for US$ Vs EURO & Yen. Forecast for policy rates in 2025 up quite sharply from Sept forecast to 3.9% from 3.4% . That would indicate fewer cuts . The FOMC expects policy rate cuts to continue into... Read More
12 Dec 24
US Fed & ECB
Update: ECB Fed BoJ Expect 25bp cut from the ECB today. Not 50 bp. The economy is bad enough for a 50bp cut But the ECB is still on the scenario that falling inflation offsets falling nominal wages so that rising real wages get spent as consumption. I doubt it , unlike the... Read More
02 Aug 24
Autumn Sonata
#Finance#EU#China#US Election#Trump#Yen#Euro#Strategy Archive#Sovereign Debt Crisis#USD#Credibility#Market Predictions#Equity Bear Market#CNH#Growth Gap#2035
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch. Read More
23 Jan 24
EU Elections - The Winds Of Change
#Euro#Strategy Archive#Society#European Union#Investors#Brexit#European Parliament Elections#Change in Leadership#EU Policy#Post-Brexit EU Parliament#Seats Allocation#Liberal Parties#Renew Europe#European People's Party (EPP)#Socialists & Democrats (S&D)
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch. Read More
26 Oct 22
ECB Tltros - Give A Thing Take A Thing
#Euro#Strategy Archive#European Central Bank#Banking#EU Banks#Loans#Real Economy#Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI)#Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Operations (TLTROs)#Reserves#Liquidity Crisis#Southern Eurozone Debt Markets
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch. Read More
05 Sep 22
Germany Getting Its Act Together
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch. Read More
29 Mar 22
For A Handful Of Dollars
#Russia#Ukraine#Euro#Strategy Archive#Commodities#European Union#Autocracies#Dollar System#Reserve Currencies
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch. Read More
14 Mar 22
EU – Warcession
#Recession#Euro#Strategy Archive#Equities#Inflation#Fiscal Stimulus#European Union#ECB Policy#Warcession#Q2 2022#Price Deflation#North-South EU Bond Spreads#High-Yield Bonds#EU Authorities#Negative Impact
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch. Read More
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