We're in for a bear market in most asset classes during 2025. This piece integrates the macro and micro reasons for that conviction. The core conviction is that macro-risk is out of synch with market volatility. This will be resolved by market volatility rising as macro ... Read More

The Fed acts to reduce the number of interest rate cuts in 2025. Underlying this is that the Fed Funds Rate is already close to the neutral rate and more cuts are not needed given that the economy is motoring and inflation is a bit high. But the knock-on effects on markets arou... Read More

US Fed. Cut as expected = 25bp. One dissent - Beth M. Hammack. Positive for US$ Vs EURO & Yen. Forecast for policy rates in 2025 up quite sharply from Sept forecast to 3.9% from 3.4% . That would indicate fewer cuts . The FOMC expects policy rate cuts to continue into... Read More

Update: ECB Fed BoJ Expect 25bp cut from the ECB today. Not 50 bp. The economy is bad enough for a 50bp cut But the ECB is still on the scenario that falling inflation offsets falling nominal wages so that rising real wages get spent as consumption. I doubt it , unlike the... Read More

The Mini Podcast on Macro - that may matter to markets China - false dawn in retail & housing?. What Xi said to Biden to say to Trump: China's 4 Red Lines (actually 3) with one a tautological obsession which tells us what Xi is prioritising. What the official anonymous China... Read More

I see the initial reaction of markets to the Trump victory as misplaced. Not that I thought KH was any good. But I do see high economic costs in Trump policies if implemented. I expect these to cause a bear market in most assets in 2025. Taiwan is my favourite short and the USD m... Read More

Japanese elections mean weak coalition government. Markets will see Yen weaken - Boj stops normalising policy. Weak yen and likelihood of fiscal packages (to buy votes) means stringer equities. JGB tields will rise reflecting bigger deficits. Read More

Japanese elections see LDP decimated. There will be a period of uncertainty and volatility for Japanese assets as a messy, weak, coalition is put together at the end of a protracted messier period of haggling. Such volatility is a storm in teacup in the global scale of things. ... Read More

RTHK - The Close- Tech Grayzone Warfare, China Deflation & the US Presidential Election Read More

Can Kamala Harris plug the vicissitudes of her economic policy pronouncements? Read More