Some clients are having trouble accessing the RUSI piece on US Policy. This is because they have not signed up for their own Quantum Strategy (QS) account and set a password. A reminder on how to do this will be sent shortly. In the meantime, here is direct link to the RU... Read More

There is a high probability that President Trump will exempt the UK from any US reciprocal/remedial tariffs to be imposed on April 2. EU will have no such luck. Of course this will create tension in the Alliance of the WIlling to defend Ukraine. That is seen as a win by the T... Read More

Taiwan- Canary in the Coal Mine The disruption of the North Atlantic Alliance and the Liberal World Order are being acted upon by Beijing. Beijing beleives that these events reinforce its conviction that democracy is too decadent to defend itself and that the US will not... Read More

ECB Policy Meeting. Conclusion: ECB will continue to cut rates by 25bp in each of the next two meetings. The ECB did as expected: 25bp off all three policy rates and changed to language on monetary stance from being restrictive to a more neutral stance. The... Read More

The markets make no allowance for the diruption of economic nationalism, the destruction of global alliances and the the preparation of inevitable war. This report rips the veil of denial with 5 bullet points on one page. Read More

A Midnight Update on the German Elections. ( sorry for typos etc. they will be righted in the report version) On balance this was an ok result. Not a dream ticket, But one that will begin to move Germany towards econimic revival. Among European equities Germany is... Read More

Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, January 28-29, 2025 I thought the most significant statement in the Minutes was this: “the effects of potential changes in trade and immigration policy as well as strong consumer demand. Business contacts in a number... Read More

Brace Yourself! Reciprocal US Tariffs. - tariffs likely to be announced April. These are not in market prices. The report sent you on Friday 15, 2025 - The Anatomy of Exceptionalism- deals with the categories of Tariffs President Trump is likely to impose see Chap... Read More

How US "Exceptionalism", and the bull market in the US$ and US equities are linked. Since just before the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, foreigners' holdings of US financial assets has risen from US$ 20 trn. to US$ 30 trn. Of this increase 10% was down to increased holding by ... Read More

As a P.S. to the Rules of Thump - the Canadian, Chinese and Mexican Tariffs. My rough calculations of the Tariff hit to economies outside the US were included in the Friday (1/31) Update sent to you. But to summarise: The effect of these (1/31 Canadian, China & Me... Read More