Time Past & Time Future. What this piece discusses: Why markets are where they are - across all categories? Six drivers are isolated. Can what got us here take us further? What would have to happen for that be our fate? What do consensus forecast expect for 2025?... Read More
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10 Dec 25
Time Past & Time Future
#European Commission#Euro Area#Trump Tariffs and Treaty Destruction#Europe-Russia the coming conflict.#Trump Ukraine Rhetoric#Japan-Takaichii#Trump's 28 Point Peace Plan#Trump's Serial Betrayalls of Ukraine#Japan-The Sustainability of Sovereign Debt#The Six Macro Risk Factors for Markets#The Cost of Trump's Spheres of Influence#The Alliance of Dictators and Dictator Wannabes.
01 Dec 25
Navigator
#Japanese Equities#Taiwan#Japanese Yen#Shipping#JGB (Japanese Government Bond)#Container Shipping#France Sovereign Debt Crisis#France-Lecornu#Japan-The Sustainability of Sovereign Debt#Japan China Conflict#US - China - Taiwan-The trilogy of Betrayal?
Navigator I am biting the bullet and cutting Japanese equity and yen positions. Keeping the short yen on. The reason is twofold: disastrous budget that will push 10yr Japanese JGB yields above Bund's at 2.7% ; and China putting Japan in the crosshairs to make an ex... Read More
24 Nov 25
Navigator (The Replacement of Oddbins)
#Japanese Equities#Japanese Yen#Asset Bubbles#Debt Bubbles#Ukraine War#Credit Bubbles#Capital Bubbles#JGB (Japanese Government Bond)#Japanese Economy#Ukraine. President Zelensky#A framework for thinking through Bubbles#President Trumps 28 Point Peace Plan#Trump's Serial Betrayalls of Ukraine#Japan-The Sustainability of Sovereign Debt
Navigator. The QS team tells me that “Odd bins” is a bad name because investors don’t want to look for research in a bin & my writings are garbage enough without associating them with a bin. So the new name is “Navigator”. Investment themes: Markets could be... Read More
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