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The ECB - Seascapes, Poetry & more rate cuts to come.
ECB Policy Meeting. Conclusion: ECB will continue to cut rates by 25bp in each of the next two meetings. The ECB did as expected: 25bp off all three policy rates and changed to language on monetary stance from being restrictive to a more neutral stance. The…
Alarming for War
Financial market make no provision for the cost of economic nationalism, the destruction of alliances and the alignment of Russia and the US in an "obsedo-alliance". This will change. When it does expect recession or worse. The Confidence, Credit and Wealth loops from financi…
Arming For War
The markets make no allowance for the diruption of economic nationalism, the destruction of global alliances and the the preparation of inevitable war. This report rips the veil of denial with 5 bullet points on one page.
The War of the End of the (NATO) World.
This report charts the effects of the breakdown of the Trans-Atlantic Alliance on geo-economics and what to do about in portfolios. The Wealth Preservation Portfolio is at the end.
Middle East – Iran – Update – Nukes
Iran's rising stockpile of weapons' grade uranium is proof Tehran is looking to nuclear weapons to replace its shattered proxies, Israel will not tolerate this. The timing of war and its scope is still towards end of this year or early 2026. But this is a guess, A lot depend…
US Key Tariff Dates
Tariffs will continue to be a source of instability in markets. The McKinley Factor, (January 26, 2025) & The Anatomy of Exceptionalism , ( February 10, 2025) analysed the key role of tariffs in President Trump’s thinking and how this influenced how they were used. No need to r…
German Election - not 1st class but may get us there
We are staying long German equities, particularly defence, on the grounds that the election result will result in economic reform and state investment in key sectors like the military and productivity boosting mechanisms laid out in the Draghi and Letta reports.
German Election Update: An Economy Class Seat Instead of 1st Class to the Right Destination
A Midnight Update on the German Elections. ( sorry for typos etc. they will be righted in the report version) On balance this was an ok result. Not a dream ticket, But one that will begin to move Germany towards econimic revival. Among European equities Germany is…
Geo-economics: The 13 Prophesies of the Apocalypse
Here are 13 things that may happen as the Liberal World Order is replaced by the Unmentionable......... and how to protect yourself from the fallout!
Germany - The Winds of Change?
Germany Bundestag Elections. A victory for a Grand Coalition led by the CDU’s Friedrich Merz, made up of the major parties (CDU/CSU + SPD plus possibly FDP or Greens), which controls two thirds of the seats in Bundestag & Bundesrat, would open the door to dramatic reform in Ger…