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Fed satisfies the market but not the mind
The US Fed's "Jumbo" 50bp cut in fed fund rates to 4.5% to 5% was not what the well balanced economy needed. It is a step into monetarist populism by the central bank. It unwarrantedly biases Fed policy towards unemployment. . It gives the wrong signal as to where the equilibrium…
Central Banks: Heads Up & Heading Down
IN the short term the Fed and the ECB will cut policy rates by 25 bp - no jumbo cuts, Over the easing cycle the ECB will have to cut policy rates more and for longer than the Fed. The EU is entering a period of secular economic decay. The Draghi report speaks not just to the US…
US Presidential Debate - The Undecided.
Harris did better in the debate. But the election is too close to call. Here are the consequences of a Trump or Harris victory
The Draghi Report- Upon Deaf Ears
The Draghi Report - All the right ideas. But unlikely to be implemented. The reasons: populism and the fear of it. Or in the case of Germany, incompetent governance. No market impact
The Significance of the Inconsequential
There are three political things that don’t matter to markets now but will.
The Middle East- is this the start of the wider war?
Israeli airstrike against Hezbollah makes the Middle East Armageddon more unlikely.
US Fed- Jackson Hole- Chairman Powell Speech
US Fed- Chair Powell speech: cuts? Yes but how much & how far" less than you think?
Ukraine- Kursk Offensive
Kursk offensive has potential to be a turning point in this war if Ukraine achieves strategic objectives. If so market effects would be significant.
Troubles Weekend
Recession is the new cloud in the blue sky over markets. The markets now know the colour of fear. Recession is not for now. But fear is. Here's why!
Autumn Sonata
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch.