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Le Pen – Après Moi le Quoi?
Le Pen Conviction - Apres Moi Le Quoi? QS has been short 10yr French Sovereign debt since July 3, 2024. No change in this conviction but it may be a slower ride. It is early days. But the most likely upshot of the constitutional crisis caused by the Le Pen conviction …
The McKinley Factor
Investment Conclusion. Exceptionalism is not just about benefits but costs. The economic policies and geopolitical disruption of the second Trump Presidency are certainly exceptional but will incur more economic costs than benefits. These costs will be spread about the worl…
Fed satisfies the market but not the mind
The US Fed's "Jumbo" 50bp cut in fed fund rates to 4.5% to 5% was not what the well balanced economy needed. It is a step into monetarist populism by the central bank. It unwarrantedly biases Fed policy towards unemployment. . It gives the wrong signal as to where the equilibrium…
Central Banks: Heads Up & Heading Down
IN the short term the Fed and the ECB will cut policy rates by 25 bp - no jumbo cuts, Over the easing cycle the ECB will have to cut policy rates more and for longer than the Fed. The EU is entering a period of secular economic decay. The Draghi report speaks not just to the US…
The Significance of the Inconsequential
There are three political things that don’t matter to markets now but will.
Things I Believe - Without Proof
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch.
Europe - From Populism To Power
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch.
Beauteous People, Brave New World, Priceless World
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch.
More Covid Bore
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch.
Germany - Thuringian Tremors
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch.