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Oddbins
Investment Conclusion There are no changes in the Wealth Preservation Portfolio this week. But long/overweight Japanese equities is being put on watch. Investors who cut Yen long positions in Yen may consider re-entering them. The BoJ has no excuse not to lean into Taka…
France Sebastian Lecornu for Prime Minister - pas de serieux!
France Sebastian Lecornu for Prime Minister - pas de serieux! Lecornu’s appointment will not fix France or alter the perception of Macron as flailing about as Paris burns. Lecornu is a traditional right wing (ex Republicain/UMP), solid, stolid politici…
Paris Brule (un peu)
France: Sovereign Debt and the Political Crisis. The Bayrou government will fall on September 8. Macron will try and avoid new legislative elections at all costs. And of course there’s no way he’ll resign as President. He will look for a centre-left PM. He hopes such a PM can …
Le Budget de Monsieur Bayrou
Le Budget de Monsieur Bayrou Investment Conclusion I’m not shorting French sovereign bonds (OATS) now. Shorting OATS now would only pay off if there are immediate legislative elections. That could be a result of a vote of no confidence in the Bayrou governm…
Le Pen – Après Moi le Quoi?
Le Pen Conviction - Apres Moi Le Quoi? QS has been short 10yr French Sovereign debt since July 3, 2024. No change in this conviction but it may be a slower ride. It is early days. But the most likely upshot of the constitutional crisis caused by the Le Pen conviction …