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France - Chaos
The French Political Crisis- Resignation of PM Sebastian Lecornu. Macron is running out of rope. The latest chapter in the poltical crisis moves France closer to another legislative election at the very least. If that were to happen then a populist government led by the…
France Sebastian Lecornu for Prime Minister - pas de serieux!
France Sebastian Lecornu for Prime Minister - pas de serieux! Lecornu’s appointment will not fix France or alter the perception of Macron as flailing about as Paris burns. Lecornu is a traditional right wing (ex Republicain/UMP), solid, stolid politici…
Paris Brule (un peu)
France: Sovereign Debt and the Political Crisis. The Bayrou government will fall on September 8. Macron will try and avoid new legislative elections at all costs. And of course there’s no way he’ll resign as President. He will look for a centre-left PM. He hopes such a PM can …
Le Pen – Après Moi le Quoi?
Le Pen Conviction - Apres Moi Le Quoi? QS has been short 10yr French Sovereign debt since July 3, 2024. No change in this conviction but it may be a slower ride. It is early days. But the most likely upshot of the constitutional crisis caused by the Le Pen conviction …
France- Plus Ca Change, Plus Ca Reste La Meme Chose.
Investment Conclusion PM Bayrou presented his government yesterday. It is a weak one by any measure. There will be no fiscal or other reform in France. Populists will take over in June. Yet another weak short lived French government has spillover effects. It increases the ri…
RTHK The Close with Carolyn Wright.
All the Big Things that could go wrong or right next year. A tour de force and tour du monde with the David Roche and Carolyn Wright.
CNBC: Europe: Steve & I on whether the only word we need to learn to pronounce next year is "Trump" to which we added Xi, Putin ...
A short history of 2025 - starting with how the reign of Trump could go wrong or right and then applying the same doomster methodology to reading the cards for Xi and Putin.......finishing with a modest forecast for the little old UK.
Barnier is gone - why the market indifference.
France. Poor Barnier is gone. And the markets are treating a rudderless France with equanimity. The Euro is at 1.05 to the USD and French 10 yr Sovereign debt is static yielding 2.05% with an unchanged 84 bp spread to Bunds. And CAC futures are up a tiny bit. That was the …