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26 Oct 25

Oddbins

Investment Conclusion There are no changes in the Wealth Preservation Portfolio this week. But long/overweight Japanese equities is being put on watch. Investors who cut Yen long positions in Yen may consider re-entering them. The BoJ has no excuse not to lean into Taka... Read More

09 Sep 25

France Sebastian Lecornu for Prime Minister - pas de serieux!

France Sebastian Lecornu for Prime Minister - pas de serieux! Lecornu’s appointment will not fix France or alter the perception of Macron as flailing about as Paris burns. Lecornu is a traditional right wing (ex Republicain/UMP), solid, stolid politici... Read More

07 Sep 25

Paris Brule (un peu)

France: Sovereign Debt and the Political Crisis. The Bayrou government will fall on September 8. Macron will try and avoid new legislative elections at all costs. And of course there’s no way he’ll resign as President. He will look for a centre-left PM. He hopes such a PM can ... Read More

28 Aug 25

Le Budget de Monsieur Bayrou

Le Budget de Monsieur Bayrou Investment Conclusion I’m not shorting French sovereign bonds (OATS) now. Shorting OATS now would only pay off if there are immediate legislative elections. That could be a result of a vote of no confidence in the Bayrou governm... Read More

01 Apr 25

Le Pen – Après Moi le Quoi?

Le Pen Conviction - Apres Moi Le Quoi? QS has been short 10yr French Sovereign debt since July 3, 2024. No change in this conviction but it may be a slower ride. It is early days. But the most likely upshot of the constitutional crisis caused by the Le Pen conviction ... Read More

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