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Le Pen – Après Moi le Quoi?

Strategy Report | David Roche | 01 Apr 25

#Populism #France #OATS #French Sovereign Debt #French Government #Europe (France)#President of France

Le Pen Conviction - Apres Moi Le Quoi? QS has been short 10yr French Sovereign debt since July 3, 2024. No change in this conviction but it may be a slower ride. It is early days. But the most likely upshot of the constitutional crisis caused by the Le Pen conviction ... Read More

The McKinley Factor

Strategy Report | David Roche | 28 Jan 25

#Populism #Investment Strategy #Asset Bubbles #EMU (Eurozone)#Central Banks (US Federal Reserve)#US Exceptionalism #Axis of Autocracies #Alliance of Democracies

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Investment Conclusion. Exceptionalism is not just about benefits but costs. The economic policies and geopolitical disruption of the second Trump Presidency are certainly exceptional but will incur more economic costs than benefits. These costs will be spread about the worl... Read More

Fed satisfies the market but not the mind

Strategy Report | David Roche | 19 Sep 24

#Finance #Central Banks #US Fed #Chairman Powell #Populism

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The US Fed's "Jumbo" 50bp cut in fed fund rates to 4.5% to 5% was not what the well balanced economy needed. It is a step into monetarist populism by the central bank. It unwarrantedly biases Fed policy towards unemployment. . It gives the wrong signal as to where the equilibrium... Read More

Central Banks: Heads Up & Heading Down

Strategy Report | David Roche | 12 Sep 24

#Politics #Trump #Central Banks #Recession #Harris #US Fed #Draghi #Populism #ECB

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IN the short term the Fed and the ECB will cut policy rates by 25 bp - no jumbo cuts, Over the easing cycle the ECB will have to cut policy rates more and for longer than the Fed. The EU is entering a period of secular economic decay. The Draghi report speaks not just to the US... Read More

The Significance of the Inconsequential

Strategy Report | David Roche | 03 Sep 24

#World #Trade #Geo-economics #Quantum Economics #Politics #Trump #Kamala Harris #Geopolitics #Draghi #EU Commission #EU Parliament #Populism #Tueringen #Saxony

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There are three political things that don’t matter to markets now but will. Read More