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What the Fed Said
What the Fed Said Investment Conclusion More rate cuts to come; two this year and more next year. The Fed reaction function has shifted to labour markets and away from inflation. The Fed’s dot plots show that FOMC expectations are for a blip in short term …
Can Russia Sustain a 2nd Europe Front?
Can Russia Sustain a 2nd Europe Front? Introduction The report “Russia – This is not Roulette (Sept 9)” got lots of follow up questions. The trust of the ensuing discussion is about the economic sustainability of war for the Kremlin. This is what I write about below.…
Russia – This is not Roulette
Russia – This is not Roulette. Investment Conclusion; This is not Russian Roulette. Every chamber in the gun is loaded. It is pointing right at the heart of Europe. The new “sheriff in town” is walking to other way down the dusty track away from the European village.…
Paris Brule (un peu)
France: Sovereign Debt and the Political Crisis. The Bayrou government will fall on September 8. Macron will try and avoid new legislative elections at all costs. And of course there’s no way he’ll resign as President. He will look for a centre-left PM. He hopes such a PM can …
President Trump’s Post Supreme Court Ruling - Tariff Options.
President Trump’s Post Supreme Court Ruling - Tariff Options. Investment Conclusion The Supreme Court (SC) ruling on the Administration’s use of emergency powers to impose tariffs will be binary. If it goes in favour of the Administration expect an upsurge i…
Odd bins: The Portfolio to match the Autumn Strategy Video …. & Shipping
Odd bins: The Portfolio to match the Autumn Strategy Video …. & Shipping Investment Conclusion The Autumn Strategy Video looks at upside and downside risks for financial markets. The upside risks from lower Fed rates are more than offset by the threats to F…
US Tariffs: Judicial Disruption of Economic Disruption = > Disruption!
US Tariffs: Judicial Disruption of Economic Disruption = > Disruption! Investment Conclusion If the US Supreme Court backs the rulings of the two lower courts that the President’s use of the IEEPA to impose tariffs is mainly illegal, there will be a mess markets ca…
The Iran Snapback - A Risk Asset Risk?
The Iran Snapback - A Risk Asset Risk? Investment Conclusion On August 28, 2025, the European signatories of the UN Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) activated a Snapback clause in the JCPOA that will reimpose sanctions on Iran after 30 days. This is on foot…