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The Mini Podcast on Macro
The Mini Podcast on Macro that may matter to markets - US Presidential, China Stimulus, Israel & Iranian assets - the "Big If".
Middle East: The Inevitable War That'll Matter to Markets
A war on Iran's nuclear assets is inevitable within a year. That is the geopolitical event that will produce a market meltdown because any attack on nuclear weapons facilities raises the risk of the terminal value of your assets being zero,
Russia - The Rubbish Budget
The Russian budget points the way to the increasing un-sustainability of the war for Moscow beginning 2025. The war does not matter to markets now. But it would if it ended. The peace dividend would be high.
The Significance of the Inconsequential
There are three political things that don’t matter to markets now but will.
The Middle East- is this the start of the wider war?
Israeli airstrike against Hezbollah makes the Middle East Armageddon more unlikely.
Autumn Sonata
Economics & Markets after Autumn makes the blooms fade & some icy winter fingers appear.
China - the Plenum
The Plenum: Much ado about nothing Well, the third Plenum went according to script. Nothing, nothing and then nothing. Report follows.
Asymmetry QT vs QE
QT is shrinking of central bank balance sheets. The balance sheets of the developed countries’ central banks have shrunk nearly 17% from their 2022 peak. But this is not reducing liquidity in any way that matters to financial markets. There are two reasons for this explored here.…