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RTHK The Close: Richard Harris, Carolyn Wright & David Roche : will July be Trump Taco or Armageddon time.
RTHK The Close: Richard Harris, Carolyn Wright & David Roche : will july be Trump Taco or Armageddon time
NDTV India: Tariffs & Why Trump will escalate & Potential Russian Escalation which would matter to markets
Three ideas: Trump is more likely to escalate than de-escalate after the International Trade Court ruling. What does this mean for markets. And the escaltion of Russian hostilities in Europe - one to watch and which markets are ignoring
Peter Lewis Money Talk
An in-depth discussion of Trump policies on Tariffs and Alliances. Mark Nicholsen, Barry Woods, Peter Lewis and David Roche discuss: has uncertainty peaked? Why no damage yet to US economy? The delay factor inherent in disruption to supply chains. The future of the US$ safe have…
China: No Pushover!
China: No Pushover! Investment Conclusion I would not be in any hurry to participate in the current market rally in equities, bonds or the US$. The US equity market today tells us the world is only 9% worse off than when President Trump took office and as…
CNBC Squawk Box - the Untimely Death of the Dollar & the Tragic Demise of US Exceptionalism
Why the US war on trade is fatal for US$ role as reserve currency and US Exceptionalism. What does this mean for US stocks & Treasuries?
Peter Lewis Money Talk: a lively discussion on the Trade War theme of who will suffer most and blink first: the US or China
This is a good debate on the workings of a trade war, who pays and why the US suffers most. We spend time analysing why the US concept that it holds the cards is just plain wrong and is a miconception of escalatory dominance in a trade war. We look at who will suffer most and w…
On a Train in China
On a Train in China Investment Conclusion The US confrontation with China will escalate further. China has escalatory dominance. And the confrontation is an opportunity for Beijing to pursue other goals left by the vacuum of US soft power withdrawal and the injury cause…
The Weaponisation of Economics (Part 2: Economic Weapons of Mass Destruction)
The Weaponisation of Economics (Part 2: Economic Weapons of Mass Destruction) Investment Conclusion The weaponisation of the global economy has a life cycle of its own. Economic Weaponisation is growing in lethality and sophistication. Weaponisation is shaping t…
The Weaponisation of Economics - (Part 1: The Escalation Ladder Viewed from China)
Investment Conclusion Here’s the thing! You do not have to speculate about the fate Chinese holdings of US Treasuries to work out how the trade war will cause a US recession and a fiscal crisis. Just take a look at trade war “escalation dominance” from China’s perspectiv…
US - China Trade War - Re-Assessment of Damage and Possible Spillovers.
Re-Assessment of Tariff Damage and the Spillovers to Expect. Yesterday i wrote to you after the initial Trump volte face on the imposition of reciprocal tariffs (postponed for 90 days) and the imposition of 125% tariffs on China. I calculated that the average US tariff w…