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Update: US Container traffic and Escalation in the Baltics and Ukraine?
Investment Conclusion President Trump will get more extreme on tariffs. Watch China & the EU. Russia will escalate in Ukraine after a significant hi tech defeat. Neither is bullish for financial assets. If Putin escalates in the Baltic on top of his current escalation t…
Uncertainty as a Certainty – Wealth Preservation Portfolio
Uncertainty as a Certainty – Wealth Preservation Portfolio Investment Conclusion There are no changes to the Wealth Preservation Portfolio this week. The ruling by the US Court of International Trade (USCIT), that the President’s use of the International Emergency Ec…
Trump Trade Policies in disarray
The US Court of International trade has ruled that the Trump Administration’s trade tariffs, both reciprocal and fentanyl, are illegal. The US Court of International Trade says Trump overstepped his authority - using a 1977 federal economic emergency law. The law does not …
The Phoney Peace?
The Phoney Peace? Investment Conclusion The market reaction to reduced US-China tariffs is unwarranted. The S&P 500 has clawed back all of its post Liberation Day losses and is only 5% below its peak. The existing tariffs and uncertainty will do a lot more…
Taiwan & HK: Butterfly Wings & Chaos?
Taiwan & HK: Butterfly Wings & Chaos? Investment Conclusion. The Taiwanese dollar (TWD) and the Hong Kong dollar (HKD) are under upward pressure. There are idiosyncratic reasons for this delved into below. But the real culprit is the fall of confidence in the…
Peter Lewis Money Talk
An in-depth discussion of Trump policies on Tariffs and Alliances. Mark Nicholsen, Barry Woods, Peter Lewis and David Roche discuss: has uncertainty peaked? Why no damage yet to US economy? The delay factor inherent in disruption to supply chains. The future of the US$ safe have…
China Spokesperson Statement on US Tariff Talks
China Spokesperson Statement on US Tariff Talks This is the statement (translated) this morning" “China has noted the repeated statements from senior US officials expressing a willingness to negotiate with China on tariff issues. At the same time, the US side has r…
CNBC Squawk Box - the Untimely Death of the Dollar & the Tragic Demise of US Exceptionalism
Why the US war on trade is fatal for US$ role as reserve currency and US Exceptionalism. What does this mean for US stocks & Treasuries?
Peter Lewis Money Talk: a lively discussion on the Trade War theme of who will suffer most and blink first: the US or China
This is a good debate on the workings of a trade war, who pays and why the US suffers most. We spend time analysing why the US concept that it holds the cards is just plain wrong and is a miconception of escalatory dominance in a trade war. We look at who will suffer most and w…
On a Train in China
On a Train in China Investment Conclusion The US confrontation with China will escalate further. China has escalatory dominance. And the confrontation is an opportunity for Beijing to pursue other goals left by the vacuum of US soft power withdrawal and the injury cause…