Reports Library
Showing All Results
EU Gulf (or US?) Vulnerability
EU Gulf (or US?) Vulnerability The blow out in EU TTF Natural Gas Futures is a short term market squeeze. Stay away from it. EU gas markets are fairly soundly balanced, Vulnerability to Middle East disruption is very low. The biggest risks are still high dependence on Rus…
Middle East Update
Middle East Update Investment Conclusion Conflict will be more prolonged. Oil disruption may be longer lasting and be more substantial than I previously thought. QS is putting back on long Brent positions and adding back 10% to Gold and other hard assets. NOT using …
Tariffs – The Aftermath
Tariffs – The Aftermath Investment Conclusion. We are far from done with volatility from Tariffs and Trade. The use of S.122 of the Trade Act 1974 is illegal in my judgement. It is also unfit for purpose as a policy to “correct” the US trade deficit. This leaves …
US Supreme Court Ruling Against IEEPA: The Emperor Has No Tariffs!
The US Supreme Court (SC) decision was in part anticipated by markets. So, it will not cause their collapse. Emerging markets, which get lower tariffs than IEEPA rate will have a rally on this result. India and China are examples. But business is not as usual. Uncerta…
Japan Election - Follow Up
Japan Election - Follow Up Investment Conclusion There is no change in strategy: short 10yr JGBs; Neutral Nikkei and Yen (but considering a short Vs SGD, AUD and RMB (where I am already long)). The LDP and its ruling coalition results are even stronger that…
Takaichi’s Gamble Pays Off.
Takaichi Sanae's Gamble has paid off. She has broken the mould of Japanese politics with an aspirational, personality driven appeal to disgruntled voters and those weary of traditional politics. None of Takaichi's policy proposals were economically scrutinised in the campaign.…
New Cold War: The Inveitable Internationalisation of the Renminbi
China has the will and the means to replace the dollar in trade. It will overcome the obstacles and do so. The result will be a significant step down in the dollar's international role and in US power projection associated with the "Exorbitant Privilege".