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The ECB did say something
The ECB did say something! There are 3 important things that the ECB's Mme Lagarde said at the Governing Council presser. Here they are: Inflation undershoot will not result in rate cuts. Even though an undershoot of the inflation target is built into the ECB…
Russia escalates.
War Escalation in Europe. The multiple Russian drones intrusion into Polish airspace and the kinetic military action to shoot them down is serious escalation. This is coming on top of increasing tension in the Baltic and subversion on land in Sweden and the Baltic states as w…
France Sebastian Lecornu for Prime Minister - pas de serieux!
France Sebastian Lecornu for Prime Minister - pas de serieux! Lecornu’s appointment will not fix France or alter the perception of Macron as flailing about as Paris burns. Lecornu is a traditional right wing (ex Republicain/UMP), solid, stolid politici…
Japan: Ishiba – Una Muerte Bien Prevista
Japan: Ishiba – Una Muerte Bien Prevista. Investment Conclusion. The fall of Japan’s Prime Minister Ishiba and the election of his successor are unlikely to excite markets. This is because: The focus of the new leadership will have to be establishing unity…
Paris Brule (un peu)
France: Sovereign Debt and the Political Crisis. The Bayrou government will fall on September 8. Macron will try and avoid new legislative elections at all costs. And of course there’s no way he’ll resign as President. He will look for a centre-left PM. He hopes such a PM can …
President Trump’s Post Supreme Court Ruling - Tariff Options.
President Trump’s Post Supreme Court Ruling - Tariff Options. Investment Conclusion The Supreme Court (SC) ruling on the Administration’s use of emergency powers to impose tariffs will be binary. If it goes in favour of the Administration expect an upsurge i…
Odd bins: The Portfolio to match the Autumn Strategy Video …. & Shipping
Odd bins: The Portfolio to match the Autumn Strategy Video …. & Shipping Investment Conclusion The Autumn Strategy Video looks at upside and downside risks for financial markets. The upside risks from lower Fed rates are more than offset by the threats to F…
US Tariffs: Judicial Disruption of Economic Disruption = > Disruption!
US Tariffs: Judicial Disruption of Economic Disruption = > Disruption! Investment Conclusion If the US Supreme Court backs the rulings of the two lower courts that the President’s use of the IEEPA to impose tariffs is mainly illegal, there will be a mess markets ca…
The Iran Snapback - A Risk Asset Risk?
The Iran Snapback - A Risk Asset Risk? Investment Conclusion On August 28, 2025, the European signatories of the UN Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) activated a Snapback clause in the JCPOA that will reimpose sanctions on Iran after 30 days. This is on foot…