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Navigator: ME – The Gordon’s Knot
Navigator: ME – The Gordon’s Knot. (THIS IS ROUGH AS I AM ON THE ROAD – SO NO EDITING!). I am staying out of oil as a hedge. I continue to add to gold. And I remain short US equites and long China – equites and the currency. In currencies, I’m a disbeliever in the …
ME The Gulf: After – Matters
ME The Gulf: After – Matters Investment Strategy. Brent oil spiked above $100. That was the limit set in “ME - What Matter Matters?” to sell the rest of the long Brent position. The 50% of the long oil position that remained was sold and the proceeds added to gold.…
ME – What Matters Matter?
ME – What Matters Matter? We are probably at the point of maximum Iranian war disruption. Long oil hedge is being cut 50% and will be sold completely if Brent goes above US$100/bbl. The reasons: · Massive naval power being refocused on Gulf shipping security. So…
EU Gulf (or US?) Vulnerability
EU Gulf (or US?) Vulnerability The blow out in EU TTF Natural Gas Futures is a short term market squeeze. Stay away from it. EU gas markets are fairly soundly balanced, Vulnerability to Middle East disruption is very low. The biggest risks are still high dependence on Rus…
Middle East Update
Middle East Update Investment Conclusion Conflict will be more prolonged. Oil disruption may be longer lasting and be more substantial than I previously thought. QS is putting back on long Brent positions and adding back 10% to Gold and other hard assets. NOT using …
Tariffs – The Aftermath
Tariffs – The Aftermath Investment Conclusion. We are far from done with volatility from Tariffs and Trade. The use of S.122 of the Trade Act 1974 is illegal in my judgement. It is also unfit for purpose as a policy to “correct” the US trade deficit. This leaves …
US Supreme Court Ruling Against IEEPA: The Emperor Has No Tariffs!
The US Supreme Court (SC) decision was in part anticipated by markets. So, it will not cause their collapse. Emerging markets, which get lower tariffs than IEEPA rate will have a rally on this result. India and China are examples. But business is not as usual. Uncerta…
Thailand – All Change Here for the Worse.
Thailand – All Change Here for the Worse. Monday, Investment Conclusion We have no exposure to Thailand. The election result does not make me want to have any.