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Saxony-Anhalt Election: Bad for Bunds & Should Be for the Euro
Saxony-Anhalt Election: Bad for Bunds & Should Be for the Euro The AfD's landslide win in Saxony-Anhalt, at nearly 44% of the vote, marks a new stage in German politics: coalition strategies built to contain extremist parties are visibly failing, and Chancellor Merz's federal coa…
Sovereign Debt – Global Consequences & the Chinese Dichotomy
Sovereign Debt – Global Consequences & the Chinese Dichotomy Sovereign bond yields will go on rising. The two drivers: inflation and fiscal deficits, will both deteriorate and see to that. Energy inflation will rise as inventories continue to fall. The Hunger Wave of disrupted gl…
Welcome Back! Here's What Moved While You Were Away.
Welcome back from the summer break. In our view, what moved in your absence isn't seven unrelated headlines but one connected regime shift, spanning AI, energy and food, central bank independence, the dollar, and geopolitics and we've pulled it all together in the attached client…
Navigator: The Ratcliffe Memorandum
Navigator: The Ratcliffe Memorandum. A “spectacular” Russian attack in Europe is possible in the next 6-12 weeks. Whether it happens depends on how seriously Putin takes the Ratcliffe warning. This is a moment to be cautious about the Euro and European assets. But stay long EU de…
The Venezuelan Oil Deal- Shades of Conrad’s Nostromo
The Venezuelan Oil Deal- Shades of Conrad’s Nostromo The “deal” could lift Venezuelan oil output from 1.25mn bpd to 3mn bpd within five years, requiring about US$100bn of investment. Bigger numbers will be advertised. This is the plausible case. That would add roughly 1-2% to glo…
Russia: Increasing Signs of Economic Bankruptcy and Desperation
Vladimir Putin has quietly opened the door to seizing almost any privately owned enterprise in Russia. David Roche unpacks the August 24 decree, its indefinite seizure mechanism, and why the move reads less like strength than fiscal strain. Essential reading for anyone tracking s…
Arctic Shipping: Promise, Limits and Strategic Reality
Arctic Shipping: Promise, Limits and Strategic Reality Arctic shipping is no longer pure speculation, but is it a real challenge to Suez and Malacca? David Roche weighs Russia's Northern Sea Route against the numbers: the vessel-size limits, icebreaker costs and insurance risk st…
Navigator: Divine Intervention
Navigator: Divine Intervention The Oil Supply figures that our research and the US Administration claim to be true are irreconcilable. One or the other will be proven completely wrong in September. Stay long Ice Diesel, EU TTF Gas and Brent (in that order). QS research finds that…
The Fed Minute Fumble
The Fed Minute Fumble The FOMC minutes must be assessed in the context of the US Treasury’s apparent intent to reduce long Treasury yields below market-determined levels. Stay short the US dollar. Stay short US Treasuries. Beware of the AI credit bubble, which will now reach new …
King Canute and the Bond Market
King Canute and the Bond MarketInvestment Conclusion The US Treasury is increasing purchases of long-term Treasuries. The stated objective is to improve liquidity. Nobody is fooled. The aim is to control and lower long term US Treasury yields. The policy is ill advised. It won’t …