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Navigator: Measure for Measure
Navigator: Measure for Measure The lullaby that the ME war has plateaued into economic irrelevance reached fever pitch this week. Most of the propaganda was unsubstantiated twaddle. The IEA, by contrast, showed continuing inventory drawdowns, which point to inventory exhaustion b…
Navigator: Great Gas!
Navigator: Great Gas! This week’s Navigator deals with one investment idea (TTF Gas) and one theme - Chokeholds & Energy Scarcity!
ME Oil: Supposing Supposing the Straits were unfrozen…..
ME Oil: Supposing Supposing the Straits were unfrozen….. This note provides a toolkit for thinking through what happens if the Strait of Hormuz (SoH) is reopened, either fully or partially — and what happens to oil prices if it is not. The best that can realistically be hoped for…
Yen: Why Intervention Can Work When It Shouldn’t! (And a Modest Road Map for Currency Weaponisation)
Yen: Why Intervention Can Work When It Shouldn’t! (And a Modest Road Map for Currency Weaponisation) This report analyses two things: · The US-Japanese Yen intervention. Why it can work for a while. But needs Japan to change monetary policy to make it last. This won’t happen. So …
The Choke Point Chart: How Energy and Food Shocks Are Converging on Global Inflation
The Choke Point Chart: how oil, LPG/LNG, fertiliser and grain all run through the same handful of chokepoints. David Roche's latest read maps the ME energy deficit (18mn bbl/day, plus 30% of global LPG/LNG) against the Black Sea grain shortage, and the "umbilical cord" linking th…
Navigator: The Heart of Each Matter
Navigator: The Heart of Each Matter This piece looks at each of our major themes and highlights the critical investment variable that will make then succeed or fail. Middle East Oil Disruption - why the broadening, deepening conflict leaves Iran feeling stronger and the US lookin…
Has Saudi Arabia Diverted Its Oil Flows Through Suez?
Saudi Arabia has offset only about half its lost Bab-el-Mandeb shipments via the northern Suez route, leaving a net ~1mn bpd supply loss and pushing the Global Daily Crude Oil Deficit to 14.6mn bpd.
AI's RPOs and Circular Equity Stakes
Following up on our last note on the AI build-out, RPOs aren't spreading risk, they're stacking it. David Roche argues the hyperscaler-to-lab financing chain layers debt twice over, largely off-balance sheet, while circular equity stakes add a fragile, correlated cushion rather t…
US Oil Inventories: Constrained Reserves Meet a Tightening Commercial Deficit
Commercial US crude and distillate stocks are already below their 30-day floors, and a 25% SPR access restriction leaves far less real cushion than headline inventory numbers suggest. David Roche's latest note lays out the case for either a near-term price squeeze or a fresh roun…
Navigator: Global Chokeholds and AI Chokepoints
Navigator: Global Chokeholds and AI Chokepoints This report looks at Global Chokeholds where geonomics strangles supply of food and energy: The Red Sea, The Gulf, The Black Sea and a few other seas like Azov and the Caspian. El Nino may shortly add the Panama Canal to the list wh…