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Japan Election - Follow Up
Japan Election - Follow Up Investment Conclusion There is no change in strategy: short 10yr JGBs; Neutral Nikkei and Yen (but considering a short Vs SGD, AUD and RMB (where I am already long)). The LDP and its ruling coalition results are even stronger that…
Takaichi’s Gamble Pays Off.
Takaichi Sanae's Gamble has paid off. She has broken the mould of Japanese politics with an aspirational, personality driven appeal to disgruntled voters and those weary of traditional politics. None of Takaichi's policy proposals were economically scrutinised in the campaign.…
New Cold War: The Inveitable Internationalisation of the Renminbi
China has the will and the means to replace the dollar in trade. It will overcome the obstacles and do so. The result will be a significant step down in the dollar's international role and in US power projection associated with the "Exorbitant Privilege".
The Warsh Identity
The Warsh Identity Investment Conclusion The appointment of Kevin Warsh to be the next Fed Chair is not at all bad. But it will not change the path of global de-dollarisation or the dilution of Fed independence. However it might slow the pace a little. Warsh is unli…
Iran War-ning
Iran War-ning. Investment Conclusion. The arms build-up in the Middle East (ME) is consistent with war, not blockade, in coming days. The war aim will probably be to overthrow of the regime. Lesser war aims are possible, such as obliterating more Iranian ballistic mi…
Gold, the Gap and the Clotty Sheep!
Gold, The Gap and the Clotty Sheep! Investment Conclusion The Wealth Preservation Portfolio is reducing gold by one fifth from its current weighting in the portfolio of 17% (after price run up). The proceeds are being added to safe haven currencies. These are AUD, SG…
Iran: The whole Hog?
I ran - The Whole Hog Investment Conclusion. War to achieve regime change in Iran is looking imminent. The initial result will be risk off and rising oil prices. But longer term a renascent Iran will reduce global oil prices by US$10-12/bbl. This is all set out in…
The Real Davos Debate
The Real Davos Debate analyses the implications of accelerated European economic militarisation if President Trump dumps NATO. The costs, financing and fiscal and monetary implications are grouped under the headings of: Accelerating EU defence spending to 5% of GDP in…