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RUSI Piece on Us Policy- link below
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Tariffs – Death By 52 cuts & Counting
Tariffs – Death By 52 cuts & Counting Tariffs announced in the Rose Garden today raise US average effective tariffs to 25%. That’s quite an exogenous shock given they were 3% when President Trump too office! These tariffs are not transitional. They are core to Pres…
Le Pen – Après Moi le Quoi?
Le Pen Conviction - Apres Moi Le Quoi? QS has been short 10yr French Sovereign debt since July 3, 2024. No change in this conviction but it may be a slower ride. It is early days. But the most likely upshot of the constitutional crisis caused by the Le Pen conviction …
UK exempted from US Remedia Tariffs to be announced on April 2
There is a high probability that President Trump will exempt the UK from any US reciprocal/remedial tariffs to be imposed on April 2. EU will have no such luck. Of course this will create tension in the Alliance of the WIlling to defend Ukraine. That is seen as a win by the T…
Tariffying!
Tariffying! US “remedial” tariffs to be announced on April 2 will raise the US effective tariff rate to above 15% - a level not seen since the Great Depression era. This is above the level needed to cause Tariff-Induced-Stagflation in the US economy. The announcement will co…
The Call - Dial "M" for Moscow.
The Call - Dial "M" for Moscow “ The absence of war is not peace and can be the prelude to war” Putin offered Trump just enough to prevent a breakdown in negotiations. The sectorial “Truce” is meaningless. Putin will use upcoming talks to pursue Russia’s maxim…
The Wealth Protection Portfolio - What's happening
Wealth Protection Portfolio - What's Going On This is what has been going on in the Wealth Protection Portfolio (“WPP"). C hanges are updated since March 1 in the text and the comes the WPP with recent and ongoing changes in red. Overarching theme : removal of expos…
War Dividend
War Dividend A tectonic plateshift has started. There will be a War Dividend to recoup the Peace Dividend since the Fall of the Berlin Wall. Events in Europe will cause a global arms race as Alliances break down and nations and blocs “go it alone”. Defence demand will far exc…
Taiwan- Canary in the Coal Mine
Taiwan- Canary in the Coal Mine The disruption of the North Atlantic Alliance and the Liberal World Order are being acted upon by Beijing. Beijing beleives that these events reinforce its conviction that democracy is too decadent to defend itself and that the US will not…
The ECB - Seascapes, Poetry & more rate cuts to come.
ECB Policy Meeting. Conclusion: ECB will continue to cut rates by 25bp in each of the next two meetings. The ECB did as expected: 25bp off all three policy rates and changed to language on monetary stance from being restrictive to a more neutral stance. The…