A short history of 2025 - starting with how the reign of Trump could go wrong or right and then applying the same doomster methodology to reading the cards for Xi and Putin.......finishing with a modest forecast for the little old UK. Read More

US Fed. Cut as expected = 25bp. One dissent - Beth M. Hammack. Less cuts to come. Positive for US$ Vs EURO & Yen. “Wannabe” but “won’t be” macro forecasts - and fudging the equilibrium rates question. But this piece explains why US equilibrium Fed Fund Rates is 4%. US... Read More

Quantum Strategy never closes. So service is normal during the end of year vacation. I say thank you for your support and wish you all health, happiness and success, in whatever way you define it, next year and for many years to come. Read More

The BoJ chose to do nothing, On the one hand it is afraid to raise rates and then being surprised in a few months when tariffs create deflationary pressure so it has to reduce rates again. On the other hand, if it doesn't raise rates the yen weakens and imported inflation may s... Read More

China_ The Renminbi will fall to 8.50 to the US$ in a year as excess domestic liquidity from failed stimulus heads for the door and devaluation is used to limit damage from tariffs. Read More

CNBC Market Alert;: US Tariffs:: Why Exceptionalism will Fail. Read More

The Fed acts to reduce the number of interest rate cuts in 2025. Underlying this is that the Fed Funds Rate is already close to the neutral rate and more cuts are not needed given that the economy is motoring and inflation is a bit high. But the knock-on effects on markets arou... Read More

US Fed. Cut as expected = 25bp. One dissent - Beth M. Hammack. Positive for US$ Vs EURO & Yen. Forecast for policy rates in 2025 up quite sharply from Sept forecast to 3.9% from 3.4% . That would indicate fewer cuts . The FOMC expects policy rate cuts to continue into... Read More

China- has the up-cycle begun? The Fed decision. Korean crisis - you couldn't make it up! Japan- does the Tankan uptick mean anything. Will the BoJ cut.........and what the Bundesbank says about Bundesland! Read More

Quantum Strategy - The Micro Podcast on Macro Matters: What's happened but matters still: China data; Germany - what the Bundesbank believes; Korea - the constitutional crisis; & France - why a decent PM makes no difference - no reform before the populists take over. And to ... Read More