What does the Gaza ceasefire accord mean? The answer is a lot. It defines the Trump II administration’s foreign policy – peace through strength with decisive personalised interventions. It makes it clear that there’ll be no immediate Israeli attack on Iran sanctioned by the US. ... Read More

Discussion with Mark Nicholson, Barry Wood and Peter Lewis about: 1. are Tariffs the only answer to China surpluses and everyone else's deficits. 2.What are China's booming exports telling us about future export demand. 3. Is shins really refocusing stimulus on creating consum... Read More

David Roche- Quantum Strategy- The Mini Podcast on Macro Matters: US jobs blow out- what it tells us about the Fed going forward. China exports - tell us shipping ahead of Tariffs will create a growth vacuum later. US sanctions on Russian energy - why and how th... Read More

RTHK The Close with my dear friend Carolyn Wright discussing: * The US Jobs blowout. What does it mean for the US Fed and longer term rates, And then there is the Michigan survey with sharply rising inflation expectations. * China exports booming ahead of tariffs but wha... Read More

Russia Sanctions & Oil. New US Sanctions are e nough to keep Brent between US$ 80-90 bbl and to heft shipping rates for legitimate tanker fleets. A Trump embargo on Iranian oil shipments could add to pricing pressure., Russia accounts for about 13% of global crude... Read More

FOMC - the future confusion. Some FOMC members included estimates of President Trump's mooted Tariff and Immigration policies in their "dot" estimates. One did not. And some didn't say. Some argued that such policies could damage the inflation outlook. Some obviously did no... Read More

We're in for a bear market in most asset classes during 2025. This piece integrates the macro and micro reasons for that conviction. The core conviction is that macro-risk is out of synch with market volatility. This will be resolved by market volatility rising as macro ... Read More

RTHK - The Close. A look forward at the coming year. What are the key factors that could drive markets up or down. Read More

S. Korea Political Crisis - Update. Ultimately the South Korean political crisis will be resolved by constitutional reform and an election leading to a left-wing government. There’ll no further threat of a coup or imposition of martial law. The arrest warrant for impeached Presi... Read More

The Micro-Podcast on Macro Matters What data matters this week: EU PMI's; Caixin PMI's; The US Fed Minutes; and Friday's US Jobs Report. The Three Macro-economic and Four Geopolitical Causes of the Coming Bear Market. Read More