Shifting Sands Investment Conclusion The result of the Japanese election heralds a period of weak government at a critical time. That undermines the safe haven status of the Yen. The Yen long position in the Wealth Preservation Portfolio is being sold. A short... Read More
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21 Jul 25
Shifting Sands
#Putin#Japanese Elections#Trump Policy#Japanese Yen#Currency ( Yen )#Yen Shorts#Putin Strategy#Vladimir Putin#President Putin#Yen (JGBs)#Japan (JGBs)#JGB (Japanese Government Bond)#Bonds (JGBs)#Boj what to expect#BoJ#Trump Tariffs.#US Tariffs#President Trump#Japan Senate Election Results#Trump Emotional Tariffs#Trump Economic Tariffs
15 Jul 25
President Trump’s Putin Pivot
#Tariffs#Trade Wars#US-China Trade War#Trade War#Ukraine War#Trump Tariffs.#US Tariffs#Remedial Tariffs#EU-US Trade War#Reciprocal Tariffs#Trump Tariffs and Treaty Destruction#China Tariffs#Russia’s Illegal War in Ukraine
President Trump’s Putin Pivot Investment Conclusion Trump’s Pivot on Putin is probably due to a sense of personnel betrayal. This is likely to make it more durable than if it was based on a moral policy vision. The pivot has the potential to change the battlefield in ... Read More
14 Jul 25
RTHK: The Close Business and Market Discussion - Jeff Cheung, David Roche & Richard Harris.- Is August 1st for TACO or for real?
Is the August 1st deadline set by Trump more bragadachio or for real? this podcast provides the answer. It's for real. And it goes into the reasons why. Read More
13 Jul 25
Trade Update
#Tariffs#Trade.#Trade War#Trump Tariffs.#US Tariffs#Remedial Tariffs#Reciprocal Tariffs#Trump Tariffs and Treaty Destruction
Trade Update Date: Saturday, July 12, 2025 Investment Conclusion The range and level of tariff threats made by the US this week is not something President Trump can go TACO on. Indeed the accusation that he is TACO on Tariffs probably is a factor behind the current... Read More
11 Jul 25
Peter Lewis, Money Talk:
#Trump Tariffs.#US Tariffs#Remedial Tariffs#Reciprocal Tariffs#Trump Tariffs and Treaty Destruction#China Tariffs
Peter Lewis: Money Talk.with David Roche. What is the significance to markets of Trump’s week of Pronouncements on tariffs. Here we discuss the economic significance of tariffs and for how long markets can ignore them. Read More
11 Jul 25
RTHK: The Close - Business and Market Discussion with Carolyn Wright, David Roche and Richard Harris
#Trump Tariffs.#US Tariffs#Remedial Tariffs#Reciprocal Tariffs#Trump Tariffs and Treaty Destruction#China Tariffs
RTHK The Close: Carolyn Wyat, Richard Harris, and David Roche talk about what China data is telling us about the effect of tariffs. Then we explain why markets will ignore the latest Trump pronouncements for a short whike but not forever, Read More
10 Jul 25
Parsing FOMC Minutes and Tariff Announcements
#Tariffs#US Fed#FOMC#US Federal Reserve#Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)#US Federal Reserve Independence.#Trump Tariffs.#US Tariffs#FOMC Minutes#Reciprocal Tariffs#Trump Tariffs and Treaty Destruction
Parsing FOMC Minutes and Tariff Announcements I parsed the FOMC minutes. I think the Fed will hang tough. Seems only Bowman & Waller want to cut. All the others more worried about inflation than the labour market. I expect inflation to rise sharply & durably in... Read More
07 Jul 25
Things of note
Things of Note: Shipping The shipping data is interesting. US container imports for May were down 7% through all ports. US shipping exports (including non container traffic) were similarly weak. The Port of LA data continues to show a bid drop in container imports 3 wee... Read More
07 Jul 25
Things of Note
Things of Note: I nvestment Conclusion The shipping data points to weakening US import demand and GDP. China appears to be replacing lost exports to the US with those to other Asian countries. Trump’s tariff letters are likely to be taken as more Guff to be followed by T... Read More
03 Jul 25
Interregnum
Interregnum Investment Conclusion This is a short-term interregnum of peace and happiness which will not last long. On May 23 the portfolio sold 10% of safe haven assets (oil & gold) and bought European equities and the Euro. It is probable that President Tru... Read More
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