This is a good debate on the workings of a trade war, who pays and why the US suffers most. We spend time analysing why the US concept that it holds the cards is just plain wrong and is a miconception of escalatory dominance in a trade war. We look at who will suffer most and w... Read More

On a Train in China Investment Conclusion The US confrontation with China will escalate further. China has escalatory dominance. And the confrontation is an opportunity for Beijing to pursue other goals left by the vacuum of US soft power withdrawal and the injury cause... Read More

The Weaponisation of Economics (Part 2: Economic Weapons of Mass Destruction) Investment Conclusion The weaponisation of the global economy has a life cycle of its own. Economic Weaponisation is growing in lethality and sophistication. Weaponisation is shaping t... Read More

Investment Conclusion Here’s the thing! You do not have to speculate about the fate Chinese holdings of US Treasuries to work out how the trade war will cause a US recession and a fiscal crisis. Just take a look at trade war “escalation dominance” from China’s perspectiv... Read More

Re-Assessment of Tariff Damage and the Spillovers to Expect. Yesterday i wrote to you after the initial Trump volte face on the imposition of reciprocal tariffs (postponed for 90 days) and the imposition of 125% tariffs on China. I calculated that the average US tariff w... Read More

Re-Assessment of Tariff Damage and the Spillovers to Expect. Yesterday i wrote to you after the initial Trump volte face on the imposition of reciprocal tariffs postponed for 90 days and the imposition of 125% tariffs on China. I calculated that the average US tariff was... Read More

The Gentleman is for turning Tariffs are still in mega-shock terrain: US average tariffs after April 10 volte face are 26% Vs 3% when President Trump took office. That’s 1% higher than if reciprocal tariffs had been implemented. What has changed is that Trump behavi... Read More

Quantifying what Trump means for US GDP & Others' Read More

President Trump aims to do two things. One is to destroy the liberal world order and ditch the US alliances that constitute it. The second aim is to kill off globalisation and replace it with a nationalist economic model. The major tool to achieve these aims is a unified geo-eco... Read More

This is the address given by Quantum Strategy - David Roche to 850 delegates at the I-Capital Conference in Phoenix Arizona on March 25th. The topic is the lethality of the Trump 2 Administration's simultaneous attacks on Globalisation, International Alliances and the Liberal W... Read More