Japan: Ishiba – Una Muerte Bien Prevista. Investment Conclusion. The fall of Japan’s Prime Minister Ishiba and the election of his successor are unlikely to excite markets. This is because: The focus of the new leadership will have to be establishing unity... Read More

France: Sovereign Debt and the Political Crisis. The Bayrou government will fall on September 8. Macron will try and avoid new legislative elections at all costs. And of course there’s no way he’ll resign as President. He will look for a centre-left PM. He hopes such a PM can ... Read More

President Trump’s Post Supreme Court Ruling - Tariff Options. Investment Conclusion The Supreme Court (SC) ruling on the Administration’s use of emergency powers to impose tariffs will be binary. If it goes in favour of the Administration expect an upsurge i... Read More

Odd bins: The Portfolio to match the Autumn Strategy Video …. & Shipping Investment Conclusion The Autumn Strategy Video looks at upside and downside risks for financial markets. The upside risks from lower Fed rates are more than offset by the threats to F... Read More

US Tariffs: Judicial Disruption of Economic Disruption = > Disruption! Investment Conclusion If the US Supreme Court backs the rulings of the two lower courts that the President’s use of the IEEPA to impose tariffs is mainly illegal, there will be a mess markets ca... Read More

The Iran Snapback - A Risk Asset Risk? Investment Conclusion On August 28, 2025, the European signatories of the UN Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) activated a Snapback clause in the JCPOA that will reimpose sanctions on Iran after 30 days. This is on foot... Read More

Le Budget de Monsieur Bayrou Investment Conclusion I’m not shorting French sovereign bonds (OATS) now. Shorting OATS now would only pay off if there are immediate legislative elections. That could be a result of a vote of no confidence in the Bayrou governm... Read More

Odd bins: Jackson Hole, Russia & Shipping Investment Conclusion : Jackson Hole is a pivot in the Fed’s reaction function which now under-emphasises tariff effects on inflation and over-emphasises the weakening labor market. So more cuts than I thought (3 at le... Read More

The Jackson Hole Pivot Investment Conclusion What Chair Powell's newly announced policy means for investors: More asset bubbles in equities, crypto and non-bank credit; Higher inflation down the road as the money will be printed to fund it; ... Read More

The US-European Meetings: Good as it’ll get but not good enough Investment Conclusion Markets will ignore the outcome of the Washington talks. There are no implications for higher tariffs on Russian oil trade and its beneficiaries. So oil will settle down in the high ... Read More