What the Fed Said Investment Conclusion More rate cuts to come; two this year and more next year. The Fed reaction function has shifted to labour markets and away from inflation. The Fed’s dot plots show that FOMC expectations are for a blip in short term ... Read More
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18 Sep 25
16 Sep 25
Can Russia Sustain a 2nd Europe Front?
#Russia#Russian Energy Exports.#Defence#Russian Influence#EU Defence Spending & Strategy#Russia’s Illegal War in Ukraine#Russian escalation in Europe#Europe-Russia the coming conflict.#Russia economic sustainability of war(s)
Can Russia Sustain a 2nd Europe Front? Introduction The report “Russia – This is not Roulette (Sept 9)” got lots of follow up questions. The trust of the ensuing discussion is about the economic sustainability of war for the Kremlin. This is what I write about below.... Read More
16 Sep 25
Odd bins
#US Fed#US Federal Reserve#Central Banks (US Federal Reserve)#Boj what to expect#US Federal Reserve Independence.#BoJ#Trump’s Crusade Against the US Fed#Asian Equities#European Equities.US Yield Steepeners.US Fed Independence.
Odd bins Investment Conclusion Asian equities added as European equities reduced. A warning on Fed Independence. Shipping data show weakness in the US economy. Read More
15 Sep 25
RTHK The Close with Carolyn Wright & Richard Harris
RTHK The Close with Carolyn Wright & Richard Harris: Tariffs update - key issues; Trump’s attempt to blackmail EU to hide his own failings and what’s critical about BoJ & Fed meetings this week. Read More
14 Sep 25
Russia – This is not Roulette
#Greyzone Warfare#Russia#EU Commission#Putin#NATO#War#European Politics#Ukraine War#Putin Strategy#EU NATO#Russia's Economy#Vladimir Putin#President Putin#European Leadership#EU Defence Spending & Strategy#Russia’s Illegal War in Ukraine#Russian escalation in Europe#NATO Art 4 & Art 5#US backing for NATO#Europe-Russia the coming conflict.
Russia – This is not Roulette. Investment Conclusion; This is not Russian Roulette. Every chamber in the gun is loaded. It is pointing right at the heart of Europe. The new “sheriff in town” is walking to other way down the dusty track away from the European village.... Read More
12 Sep 25
The ECB did say something
The ECB did say something! There are 3 important things that the ECB's Mme Lagarde said at the Governing Council presser. Here they are: Inflation undershoot will not result in rate cuts. Even though an undershoot of the inflation target is built into the ECB... Read More
10 Sep 25
Russia escalates.
War Escalation in Europe. The multiple Russian drones intrusion into Polish airspace and the kinetic military action to shoot them down is serious escalation. This is coming on top of increasing tension in the Baltic and subversion on land in Sweden and the Baltic states as w... Read More
09 Sep 25
France Sebastian Lecornu for Prime Minister - pas de serieux!
#France#Europe (France)#President of France#France Sovereign Debt Crisis#French Prime Minister#Sebastian Lecornu
France Sebastian Lecornu for Prime Minister - pas de serieux! Lecornu’s appointment will not fix France or alter the perception of Macron as flailing about as Paris burns. Lecornu is a traditional right wing (ex Republicain/UMP), solid, stolid politici... Read More
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