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Troubles Weekend
Recession is the new cloud in the blue sky over markets. The markets now know the colour of fear. Recession is not for now. But fear is. Here's why!
China - the Plenum
The Plenum: Much ado about nothing Well, the third Plenum went according to script. Nothing, nothing and then nothing. Report follows.
Joe Biden Withdraws
It is confirmed that Joe Biden has withdrawn his candidacy for the Presidency. He endorses Kamala Harris as his successor. This choice is likely to be endorsed by the Democratic Party. Report follows.
Asymmetry QT vs QE
QT is shrinking of central bank balance sheets. The balance sheets of the developed countries’ central banks have shrunk nearly 17% from their 2022 peak. But this is not reducing liquidity in any way that matters to financial markets. There are two reasons for this explored here.…
France 2eme Tour
France 2eme Tour. Expected: Le Pen/RN does not get (nor should she want) a majority under a Macron Presidency. . Such a “cohabitation “ would taint her. She would cement her position to be France’s next President better by being “kept out of power “ by a weak 5-way Macron led coa…
France Takes Another Step Toward Ungovernability
Based in the exit polls for the first round with a massive 65% turnout Le Pens Rally National (hard right) won 34% of the votes; le Front Populaire (the hard left) won 28% and Macron’s Renaissance 20%. the Republicans got 10.2%. This show Rally National very close to getting an a…
Le Dounut Francais
The stability at the top of the EU institutions created by the EU Parliamentary election will be undone by the black hole of the French national election, which will empower the extremists, as well as by German political paralysis. As a result, the Seven Major PIllars of EU refor…
QT vs QE - The Nature of Asymmetry
QT is shrinking Central Bank balance sheets. But is not reducing liquidity in any way that matters to financial markets. There are two reasons for this explored here: “The Fire Brigade” syndrome, which makes QE & QT asymmetrical and has nothing to do with economics and a lot to d…