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ME – Cutting to the Quick
ME – Cutting to the Quick The US blockade so far appears to be only partially successful in halting Iranian oil shipments or restoring freedom of navigation using the Omani exit route from the Straits of Hormuz (SoHo). The continued flow of oil from Iran will ease s…
The Defeat of the Deal.
The Defeat of the Deal. This deal is taco with a price tag. For markets no war is a win. For investors it leaves us in Limbo- not Heavan or Hell. For the Iranian regime they emerge as the strategic victor from the war. It achieves lots of IRGC objectiv…
Navigator: Middle East – The Barebones
Navigator: Middle East – The Barebones Here we look at 4 potential outcomes of the Middle East War through the lense of energy prices and demand destruction that matches the outcome. Demand destruction is measured in terms of: the required reduction in global energy c…
ME War – What Moves Matters
ME War – What Moves Matters. This report measures disruption from the Gulf and Red Sea combined. Despite already being disrupted the Red Sea can add a lot more in terms of energy, freight costs, food, fertilizer and metals. This will be an inevitability if President Trump e…
Navigator: The Oil Price – What drives it?
Navigator: The Oil Price – What drives it? It is the flow of oil in and out of crude reserves that drives the oil price and NOT the level or adequacy of inventories. The Middle East War creates a 12.5mn to 20mn bpd hole in global supply. That means every week oil drains out…
Gold, Clausewitz & Chocolate
Gold, Clausewitz & Chocolate. This report measures which countries may sell gold to meet the rising cost of the Middle East Crisis. The method is to measure a country's temptation to sell gold as a function of how much gold it owns and how great is its vulne…
EU Gas – A Potential Crisis of US Making
EU Gas – a Potential Crisis of US Making An EU energy crisis could result from a cut in US LNG supply to Europe (57% of LNG supply and 5% to EU total energy use). The result of a 100% stop in US LNG shipments to the EU for 2-3 months would reduce EU gas inventories to…
Navigator: Iran’s New Nukes
Navigator: Iran’s New Nukes. Miracles can happen. The Iranian regime could fall. But more likely is further escalation. In the end Iran wins strategically even if it loses the war. That transforms the Gulf into Iran's new nuke. And Tehran will have no reason not to…
ME The Gulf: After – Matters
ME The Gulf: After – Matters Investment Strategy. Brent oil spiked above $100. That was the limit set in “ME - What Matter Matters?” to sell the rest of the long Brent position. The 50% of the long oil position that remained was sold and the proceeds added to gold.…
ME – What Matters Matter?
ME – What Matters Matter? We are probably at the point of maximum Iranian war disruption. Long oil hedge is being cut 50% and will be sold completely if Brent goes above US$100/bbl. The reasons: · Massive naval power being refocused on Gulf shipping security. So…