Israel Vs Iran Update: The Thin Edge of Judgement Investment Conclusion The war will last longer than the Israeli lightning-strikes that the market is used to. It can also tip into a war focussed on regime-change (as Israel ambitions) or a pause for President Tr... Read More

The Port of Los Angeles inward bound anticipated container traffic is set to run at 122k to 123k TEUs this week and next. This is slightly above the low levels of a year ago. However in the week ending July 7 volumes drop back to the average run rate of 100k TEUs. This is not a... Read More

Middle East: Good Cop, Bad Cop & The Bactrian Camel Investment Conclusion The Israeli attack on Iran was coordinated with the US. The strategy is intended to force Iran to denuclearise on President Trump’s terms. Thus escalation will be limited for now as Ira... Read More

The Gormless Eejit! Investment Conclusion Can equities continue to rise while US bonds and the US$ to fall? I got this wrong so far. This note looks at the economic logic of this divorce. It could continue if disruption is over. But that’s unlikely. The wider economi... Read More

Here is the anticipated inward US container port data for the next three weeks - as provided by the Port of Los Angeles. (The port of Los Angeles handles 40% of US containerised imports. 50% of its traffic is from China. That is why i use it as a proxy for US container ... Read More

The taxation and breakdown of global capital flows (Written on a plane - unchecked, illiterate but important) QS strategy includes capital controls and taxation of foreign investment as part of the fragmentation of world order. It is also part of the potty e... Read More

Korea after the elections. Lee Jay-Keung has one big advantage in that his party controls parliament and he is president. But he faces many daunting challenges that he does not control: 1. The economy is 87% international trade. If US 25% tariffs are imposed it will p... Read More

Investment Conclusion President Trump will get more extreme on tariffs. Watch China & the EU. Russia will escalate in Ukraine after a significant hi tech defeat. Neither is bullish for financial assets. If Putin escalates in the Baltic on top of his current escalation t... Read More

Uncertainty as a Certainty – Wealth Preservation Portfolio Investment Conclusion There are no changes to the Wealth Preservation Portfolio this week. The ruling by the US Court of International Trade (USCIT), that the President’s use of the International Emergency Ec... Read More

The US Court of International trade has ruled that the Trump Administration’s trade tariffs, both reciprocal and fentanyl, are illegal. The US Court of International Trade says Trump overstepped his authority - using a 1977 federal economic emergency law. The law does not ... Read More