US Non-Farm Payrolls : The Non-Farm Payrolls report shows that only 12,000 positions were added in October (much lower than the exp. 100k, average compiled by Dow Jones) US Unemployment rate is unchanged at 4.1%, in line with expectations. The Bureau of Labor Statistic... Read More

Japanese elections see LDP decimated. There will be a period of uncertainty and volatility for Japanese assets as a messy, weak, coalition is put together at the end of a protracted messier period of haggling. Such volatility is a storm in teacup in the global scale of things. ... Read More

Limited Israeli retaliation Against Iran will relieve markets. But it does not change outlook for a wider war to be waged by Israel to achieve regime chnage in Tehran targeting Iran's oil assets and nukes within 12 months. The current attack will not break the mould of market i... Read More

Macro uncertainty (high) and market volatility (low) have divorced. The piece explains why and when it will end. This will happen in the next twelve months. The catalyst will be conflicts that incur economic cost beyond what markets can ignore. Read More

China- why the stimulus packages won't work and what it means. China remains uninvestable Read More

There will be a bear market in the next 12 months. The DNA of the bear market is writ large: the inevitable war on Iran’s nuclear weapons capabilities; Russia and Ukraine again becoming economically relevant to markets; unrequited market expectations for growt... Read More

A war on Iran's nuclear assets is inevitable within a year. That is the geopolitical event that will produce a market meltdown because any attack on nuclear weapons facilities raises the risk of the terminal value of your assets being zero, Read More

I got the Iranian attack on Israel wrong. All now depends on Israel's targeting of its escalatory response. If Israel uses its intelligence to decapitate the Iranian regime (and the IRGC), as it did with Hezbollah, then the economic spillover effects (e.g. energy)) will be limit... Read More

The Russian budget points the way to the increasing un-sustainability of the war for Moscow beginning 2025. The war does not matter to markets now. But it would if it ended. The peace dividend would be high. Read More

Leadership matters in Japan with the biggest impact being on regional security Read More