Update - the week ahead. I don't expect any surrender by President Trump on April 9th. Barring that the full 25% rate of Tariffs announced on April 2 will be implemented. In comments made yesterday the President emphasised that his priority is to "address" the US current ... Read More

Some clients are having trouble accessing the RUSI piece on US Policy. This is because they have not signed up for their own Quantum Strategy (QS) account and set a password. A reminder on how to do this will be sent shortly. In the meantime, here is direct link to the RU... Read More

Tariffs – Death By 52 cuts & Counting Tariffs announced in the Rose Garden today raise US average effective tariffs to 25%. That’s quite an exogenous shock given they were 3% when President Trump too office! These tariffs are not transitional. They are core to Pres... Read More

Le Pen Conviction - Apres Moi Le Quoi? QS has been short 10yr French Sovereign debt since July 3, 2024. No change in this conviction but it may be a slower ride. It is early days. But the most likely upshot of the constitutional crisis caused by the Le Pen conviction ... Read More

There is a high probability that President Trump will exempt the UK from any US reciprocal/remedial tariffs to be imposed on April 2. EU will have no such luck. Of course this will create tension in the Alliance of the WIlling to defend Ukraine. That is seen as a win by the T... Read More

Tariffying! US “remedial” tariffs to be announced on April 2 will raise the US effective tariff rate to above 15% - a level not seen since the Great Depression era. This is above the level needed to cause Tariff-Induced-Stagflation in the US economy. The announcement will co... Read More

The Call - Dial "M" for Moscow “ The absence of war is not peace and can be the prelude to war” Putin offered Trump just enough to prevent a breakdown in negotiations. The sectorial “Truce” is meaningless. Putin will use upcoming talks to pursue Russia’s maxim... Read More

Wealth Protection Portfolio - What's Going On This is what has been going on in the Wealth Protection Portfolio (“WPP"). C hanges are updated since March 1 in the text and the comes the WPP with recent and ongoing changes in red. Overarching theme : removal of expos... Read More

War Dividend A tectonic plateshift has started. There will be a War Dividend to recoup the Peace Dividend since the Fall of the Berlin Wall. Events in Europe will cause a global arms race as Alliances break down and nations and blocs “go it alone”. Defence demand will far exc... Read More

Taiwan- Canary in the Coal Mine The disruption of the North Atlantic Alliance and the Liberal World Order are being acted upon by Beijing. Beijing beleives that these events reinforce its conviction that democracy is too decadent to defend itself and that the US will not... Read More