The Truce Proposal Update. British newspaper (FT) article claims Putin ready to agree a ceasefire based on actual front lines and abandon precondition that the unoccupied remainder of the so-called (Witkoff) five Ukrainian provinces be handed over to Russia in advance o... Read More
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22 Apr 25
The Truce Proposal
The Truce Proposal Investment Conclusion The joint US, EU & Ukrainian Ceasefire Proposal – outlined below - to be finalised in London this week, will be rejected by Moscow. This inevitably leads to escalation. Scenarios: President Trump withdraws from Europe ... Read More
20 Apr 25
On a Train in China
#Tariffs#China Stimulus#US-China Trade War#People's Bank of China (PBoC)#US-China Trade Relations#PBoC (People's Bank of China)#China Renminbi#Economy (China)#US-China#Trump's 100 Policy Blitz.China GDP#Trump Tariffs.#US Tariffs#Remedial Tariffs#Reciprocal Tariffs#Trump Tariffs and Treaty Destruction#China Tariffs
On a Train in China Investment Conclusion The US confrontation with China will escalate further. China has escalatory dominance. And the confrontation is an opportunity for Beijing to pursue other goals left by the vacuum of US soft power withdrawal and the injury cause... Read More
15 Apr 25
The Weaponisation of Economics (Part 2: Economic Weapons of Mass Destruction)
#Trump Policy#Trade Wars#US-China Trade War#Trump Administration#Donald Trump#Trade War#Trump Tariffs.#EU-US Trade War#Trump - Putin Call#President Trump#Trump Tariffs and Treaty Destruction
The Weaponisation of Economics (Part 2: Economic Weapons of Mass Destruction) Investment Conclusion The weaponisation of the global economy has a life cycle of its own. Economic Weaponisation is growing in lethality and sophistication. Weaponisation is shaping t... Read More
14 Apr 25
The Weaponisation of Economics - (Part 1: The Escalation Ladder Viewed from China)
#Tariffs#Escalation#Ladder Of Escalation#Trump Tariffs.#US Tariffs#Remedial Tariffs#Reciprocal Tariffs#Trump Tariffs and Treaty Destruction#China Tariffs
Investment Conclusion Here’s the thing! You do not have to speculate about the fate Chinese holdings of US Treasuries to work out how the trade war will cause a US recession and a fiscal crisis. Just take a look at trade war “escalation dominance” from China’s perspectiv... Read More
11 Apr 25
US - China Trade War - Re-Assessment of Damage and Possible Spillovers.
#Tariffs#Trump Tariffs.#Tariffs China Mexico Canada#US Tariffs#Remedial Tariffs#Reciprocal Tariffs#Trump Tariffs and Treaty Destruction#China Tariffs
Re-Assessment of Tariff Damage and the Spillovers to Expect. Yesterday i wrote to you after the initial Trump volte face on the imposition of reciprocal tariffs (postponed for 90 days) and the imposition of 125% tariffs on China. I calculated that the average US tariff w... Read More
11 Apr 25
US - China Trade War - Re-Assessment of Damage and Possible Spillovers.
#Tariffs#Trump Tariffs.#Tariffs China Mexico Canada#US Tariffs#Remedial Tariffs#Reciprocal Tariffs#Trump Tariffs and Treaty Destruction#China Tariffs
Re-Assessment of Tariff Damage and the Spillovers to Expect. Yesterday i wrote to you after the initial Trump volte face on the imposition of reciprocal tariffs postponed for 90 days and the imposition of 125% tariffs on China. I calculated that the average US tariff was... Read More
10 Apr 25
Germany - The Coalition is Signed! Here are the spending plans - bullish for growth and equities
#Europe (Germany#German Grand Coalition#German Stimulus#German Infrastructure & Defence Spending#EU Implications of German Defence Spending#German Infrastructure Spending#German Equities & Bunds
Germany Coalition (CDU/CSU + SPD) Agreed & Spending Plans. Positive for German equities. Bearish for long term Bunds (but not short term bunds). Marginally positive for the Euro. The German coalition agreement and the published spending plans are positive fo... Read More
10 Apr 25
US Tariffs: The Gentleman is for turning
#Tariffs#Trump Tariffs.#Tariffs China Mexico Canada#US Tariffs#Remedial Tariffs#Reciprocal Tariffs#Trump Tariffs and Treaty Destruction
The Gentleman is for turning Tariffs are still in mega-shock terrain: US average tariffs after April 10 volte face are 26% Vs 3% when President Trump took office. That’s 1% higher than if reciprocal tariffs had been implemented. What has changed is that Trump behavi... Read More
07 Apr 25
RUSI - US Trade & Trump’s Tariffs - disruption or design
It is the dual targeting of US alliances politically and globalisation economically which makes the Trump 2.0 administration so lethal. Read More
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