This week we publish "The 8 Disruptions" or why consensus flat world forecasts are wrong. The BoJ will be key in first stage of the battle for central bank independence in Japan . We expect it raise rate to 0.75bp. But if Ueda chickens out JGB 1pyr yields will decisive... Read More

The Fed and the BOJ More Fed cuts to come....but not the sort that will contiue to inspire confidence in equity markets. In Japan the battle for central bnk independence will be declared when Ueda raises rate by 75BP in the BoJ December meeting. That will ... Read More

Time Past & Time Future. What this piece discusses: Why markets are where they are - across all categories? Six drivers are isolated. Can what got us here take us further? What would have to happen for that be our fate? What do consensus forecast expect for 2025?... Read More

Navigator. The publication of the US National Security Strategy last week might be written off as a Trump rant (on the lines of his UN speech) if it did not name the EU as an enemy to be undermined by US support for extremists. It is hard to see how the US and Europe can... Read More

Navigator I am biting the bullet and cutting Japanese equity and yen positions. Keeping the short yen on. The reason is twofold: disastrous budget that will push 10yr Japanese JGB yields above Bund's at 2.7% ; and China putting Japan in the crosshairs to make an ex... Read More

The New Cold War – How China Wins It! ( The New Cold War - Part III: An investor’s Guide) China may not always have intended to replace the US at the top of the global pecking order: geopolitically, militarily and economically. But it does now. This piece looks ... Read More

Navigator. The QS team tells me that “Odd bins” is a bad name because investors don’t want to look for research in a bin & my writings are garbage enough without associating them with a bin. So the new name is “Navigator”. Investment themes: Markets could be... Read More

President Trump's 28-Point Peace Plan. President Trump's 28-Point Peace Plan is the often repeated but now irrefutably defined proof that the US in on the same page as Putin about the causes and resolutions of Russia's war in Ukraine. But this time is different... Read More

Ukraine: US 28 Point Plan backing Russian Demands: a Yalta moment for Europe. *Ukraine- US backs Russian demands.* Below is the full 28 point US plan drawn up without consultation with any allies. It is tantamount to a full capitulation of Ukraine and satisfacti... Read More

Odd bins Investment Conclusion A renminbi based international payment and reserve system will take off within a year causing a leg down in the US$’s role as global reserve currency. Gold, not the RMB, will be the reserve asset of choice. Gold will go to US$6000 per t... Read More