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Finland-Estonia – suspected undersea electricity sabotage. on 12/25/2024 @ 2400hrs
Finland-Estonia – suspected undersea electricity sabotage. The undersea electricity cable (EstLink 2) linking both countries failed at 2400hrs on 12/25/2024. EstLink 2 is 170km long with 145km being undersea. It is alleged that the cable was cut under the …
China PLA Purge & S. Korean Constutuionl Crisis.
The relevance of China purges and Korean Constitutional crisis to investors: China - Purge. This brings to 20 the senior officer purged in the last 18 months. The purpose is bring the PLA more under Xi’s direct control. It helps tranform the PLA into a more honed …
Quantum Strategy
Quantum Strategy never closes. So service is normal during the end of year vacation. I say thank you for your support and wish you all health, happiness and success, in whatever way you define it, next year and for many years to come.
US Fed - less cuts to come - “wannabe” but “won’t be” macro forecasts - and fudging the equilibrium rates
US Fed. Cut as expected = 25bp. One dissent - Beth M. Hammack. Positive for US$ Vs EURO & Yen. Forecast for policy rates in 2025 up quite sharply from Sept forecast to 3.9% from 3.4% . That would indicate fewer cuts . The FOMC expects policy rate cuts to continue into…
Update: China CEWC & Korea in Limbo & France in a hell of its own making.
Update China: CEWC: most of the statement is reiteration of previous stimulus packages. No new initiatives. No new money - in fact financing of the already announced interventions to stabilise the real estate market was omitted altogether.. Three shifts in langu…
US Fed & ECB
Update: ECB Fed BoJ Expect 25bp cut from the ECB today. Not 50 bp. The economy is bad enough for a 50bp cut But the ECB is still on the scenario that falling inflation offsets falling nominal wages so that rising real wages get spent as consumption. I doubt it , unlike the…
Middle East & Russia: Update
Update Middle East and Russia: Shifting Sands and Snow Drifts. I have been getting the views of some friends involved in the Middle East and others serving in Ukraine. Both sets of views are a bit different to what markets believe. It changes the timing and risks of …
Barnier is gone - why the market indifference.
France. Poor Barnier is gone. And the markets are treating a rudderless France with equanimity. The Euro is at 1.05 to the USD and French 10 yr Sovereign debt is static yielding 2.05% with an unchanged 84 bp spread to Bunds. And CAC futures are up a tiny bit. That was the …
Korea Martial Law - Coup in a Tea Cup
Korea Martial Law. I don't own any S. Korean assets or the currency. If you do, stay calm. This coup seems so bonkers - even by Korean standards - that it'll be gone and forgotten in a short time. If the process of impeachment of the president takes longer the KRW mi…
Update on Geopolitics that matter to markets
Update on Macro events that may matter to markets. France: I expect the Bernier government to fall and the budget not to be passed. It could happen today or later this week. The result will be a widening of French sovereign spreads to 110 BP over bunds. The Euro will…