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Tariffying!
Tariffying! US “remedial” tariffs to be announced on April 2 will raise the US effective tariff rate to above 15% - a level not seen since the Great Depression era. This is above the level needed to cause Tariff-Induced-Stagflation in the US economy. The announcement will co…
Baltic Undersea Electricity Cables – More Than Meets the Eye.
The sabotage of the Baltic EstLInk2 undersea electricity cable linking Finland to Estonia is not “story over”. The Baltic States are supposed to celebrate the end of their membership of BRELL (Belarus, Russia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania) soviet era electricity supply grid in …
Finland-Estonia – suspected undersea electricity sabotage. on 12/25/2024 @ 2400hrs
Finland-Estonia – suspected undersea electricity sabotage. The undersea electricity cable (EstLink 2) linking both countries failed at 2400hrs on 12/25/2024. EstLink 2 is 170km long with 145km being undersea. It is alleged that the cable was cut under the …
RTHK The Close with Carolyn Wright.
All the Big Things that could go wrong or right next year. A tour de force and tour du monde with the David Roche and Carolyn Wright.
Quantum Strategy David Roche - The Mini Podcast of Macro That Matters to Markets!
Quantum Strategy David Roche - The Mini Podcast of Macro That Matters to Markets! China's deflation continues- why it matters? Syria- the two scenarios and how critical they are. ECB - what to expect. US Inflation - service price figures critical
The Micro Podcast on Macro that matters to markets
David Roche: Quantum Strategy - The Micro Podcast for Macro that matters to Markets: Moving on from Trump cabinet appointments to policy the Trump Administration will pursue. I focus on two areas Tariffs and Ukraine - i look at likely policy choices and implications. Th…
Mini Podcast on Macro
The Mini Podcast on Macro - that may matter to markets China - false dawn in retail & housing?. What Xi said to Biden to say to Trump: China's 4 Red Lines (actually 3) with one a tautological obsession which tells us what Xi is prioritising. What the official anonymous China…
Portfolio Implications of Trump II
The Second Trump Administration stands up-front and central to any market forecast this year. It is not an add-on to any existing macro picture or cycle. It is hard not to predict the future without looking through a mirror that reflects everything you like or hate about the Ma…
Middle East: Limited Israeli Retaliation
Limited Israeli retaliation Against Iran will relieve markets. But it does not change outlook for a wider war to be waged by Israel to achieve regime chnage in Tehran targeting Iran's oil assets and nukes within 12 months. The current attack will not break the mould of market i…
When Macro Will Matter
Macro uncertainty (high) and market volatility (low) have divorced. The piece explains why and when it will end. This will happen in the next twelve months. The catalyst will be conflicts that incur economic cost beyond what markets can ignore.